Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Key Messages

• In West Africa, market supplies were adequate but below last year due to production deficits and COVID-19 related disruptions. Demand increased with seasonal stock depletion but remained below average especially given the limited purchasing power and cross-border trade restrictions across the region. Insecurity-related market disruptions persisted in the Greater Lake Chad basin, the Tibesti region, and the Liptako-Gourma region. Staple prices were below average in the Sahel, except in deficit areas, while they were substantially above average in Nigeria where they affected by the depreciation of the currency and inflation.

• In East Africa, staple food price trends varied across the region. COVID-19 related movement restrictions continued to contribute to some atypical supply, demand, and price patterns. Maize prices declined in surplus-producing Uganda due to weak demand and declined seasonally in Tanzania with the progression of harvests. Prices continued increasing atypically in Sudan and remained above average in many areas of the region due to persistently high inflation and currency depreciation. Livestock prices remained stable at elevated levels due to favorable rangeland conditions earlier in the year and as pastoralists within the region continue to rebuild their herds following the 2016/17 drought.

• In Southern Africa, maize supply on major markets improved seasonally as the 2020/21 marketing year progressed in most countries of the region. Prices declined seasonally in many countries but remained well above average. South Africa continued exporting maize to structurally-deficit countries of the region, especially Zimbabwe where regional imports have expanded considerably in recent months following the easing of phytosanitary (GMO) restrictions. Zambia maintained a ban on formal maize exports but continued exporting via informal channels due to favorable prices in neighboring countries.

• In Central America, maize supplies were average while market speculation led to temporary disruptions in bean supply. Maize prices were stable or decreasing while beans prices increased seasonally. Maize prices remained above average while bean prices rose to significantly above average levels across the region. In Haiti, local and imported staple food supplies were at average to below-average levels. Staple food prices generally increased and remained above 2019 and five-year average levels. The Haitian gourde depreciated by seven percent against the USD.

• In Central Asia, wheat price trends were stable or decreasing on average in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Wheat export prices increased in Kazakhstan. In Yemen, the broader conflict and macroeconomic context continued to disrupt overall market functioning and food access with staple food prices remaining above-average levels.

• International staple food markets are well supplied. Rice, maize, wheat, and soybean prices were stable or decreasing on average in May. Global crude oil prices increased for the first time in four months as demand recovered faster than anticipated while global fertilizer prices were stable or decreasing in May.