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July 2024 Global Price Watch

July 2024 Global Price Watch

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • In West Africa, cereal prices increased from May to June 2024, driven by the seasonal depletion of stocks and high market demand. Prices remained above their five-year average due to below-average supply, low replenishment of stocks, insecurity, and trade restrictions. Prices were above their previous year’s levels in Niger, parts of Chad, and in the Far North region of Cameroon. The cost-of-living crisis in Nigeria continues to drive inflation rates to historic levels. Regionally, prices are expected to trend upward throughout the lean season and remain above average across the region.
    • In East Africa, staple food prices showed mixed trends in June. Ongoing harvests kept prices down in most markets in Tanzania, Uganda, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, and Burundi. Higher carryover stocks from 2023 and regional trade maintained near- to below-average price levels in many markets. However, tightening supplies drove seasonal price increases in South Sudan and Sudan. Rangeland conditions determined livestock prices, mostly trending upward due to improved feed and water availability. Ongoing conflict in Sudan and high inflation in Ethiopia continued to drive elevated prices across markets in both countries.
    • In Southern Africa, maize prices generally increased in June due to the El Niño-induced drought and depleting harvest stocks. While South Africa and Tanzania showed some price stability, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi, and parts of Mozambique experienced significant annual price increases due to constrained supply and high demand. The region is expected to register a negative maize balance of 3 million MT in the 2024/25 marketing year, the second-worst net supply position in 15 years. This production shortfall will likely drive further price increases, with inflation risks and currency depreciation potentially exacerbating regional market challenges (Page 5).
    • In Central America, imports and carryover stocks continued to support white maize price stability. Black and red beans wholesale prices were stable, except in Nicaragua, where lower exports increased local supply, driving prices down. In Haiti, security conditions improved, but gang confrontations continued to disrupt wholesale market operations in Port-au-Prince. Local food prices were stable or declined due to higher seasonal supply. In Venezuela, markets were well supplied, and prices were stable. Inflation continued to ease due to a strong USD availability.
    • In Central Asia, the export price of milling wheat in Kazakhstan remained stable for the sixth consecutive month. Wheat flour prices were mixed across the Middle East and Asia, declining in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and stable in both the SBA and IRG regions of Yemen, while increasing slightly in Lebanon.
    • International markets were well-supplied in June, with global commodity prices showing mixed trends. Rice prices edged up slightly due to supply constraints, while maize and soybean prices decreased due to increased supplies and bearish market forces. Wheat prices fell as a result of new harvests and weaker demand. Crude oil prices experienced volatility following OPEC+ production cuts, initially slipping before rebounding to 82 USD per barrel at the end of June. Fertilizer prices increased, driven by higher nitrogen fertilizer costs resulting from natural gas supply constraints in Egypt and continued export limits in China.

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    Price Watch offers a monthly summary and outlook on global, regional and national trends of key commodity prices in FEWS NET countries. Analysis may touch on global issues, such as fuel prices or exchange rates, if they are likely to influence staple food prices in FEWS NET countries. The accompanying Price Watch Annex details price trends by country.

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