Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Key Messages

• In West Africa, market supplies were below average in June and continued to decrease seasonally as the lean season set in. Demand continued to increase and was above average due to more intensive replenishment of trader of stocks, a longer institutional purchase period, and exports to the eastern basin. Staple food prices remained above five-year average levels, especially in Nigeria. Conflict-related market disruptions persisted across parts of Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Chad, and Cameroon. Livestock demand increased significantly ahead of the Tabaski holiday, but livestock trade in the region remained below average due to trade restrictions and insecurity.

• In East Africa, staple food price trends varied. Prices increased seasonally in Sudan and decreased in Tanzania, Burundi, and South Sudan following domestic harvests. Prices were seasonably stable in Ethiopia and Uganda. Prices were atypically stable in Kenya, supported by imports, while prices increased in Somalia ahead of anticipated poor harvests. Livestock prices remained stable or increased with improved rangeland conditions. Poor macro-economic conditions continued to put upward pressure on prices in Burundi, Ethiopia, Sudan, and South Sudan. 

• In Southern Africa, favorable growing conditions led to above-average maize production across much of the region. Aggregate national maize supply is expected to be average to above-average, except in Madagascar, where supply will be below average. Intra-regional informal trade is below average due to domestic availability and limited import demand. Prices were stable or continued declining and were generally lower than 2020 levels but remained above average in many countries. South Africa continued to export to international markets, and maize prices there continue to track high global reference market prices. These trends were also reflected in neighboring import-dependent countries.

• In Central America, markets were well supplied and operating normally. Maize prices increased seasonally in June, except for Guatemala and Nicaragua. Bean prices were stable, and rice prices remain stable. In Haiti, local maize and black bean prices decreased seasonally while imported rice prices were stable. Other imported staple foods experienced depreciation-induced price increases.

• In Central Asia, wheat prices were stable in June but remained significantly above five-year average levels. Wheat prices in Afghanistan and Kazakhstan were similar to or below 2020 levels. In Yemen, the effects of foreign currency shortages, currency depreciation, and exchange rate volatility due to protracted conflict and other socioeconomic drivers continued to have economy-wide effects. Staple food prices remained significantly above average.

• International staple food markets were well supplied. Rice, maize, wheat, and soybean prices decreased on average in June (Figure 2). Global crude oil prices increased further due to tightening inventory levels while global fertilizer prices were stable or increasing in June.