Price Watch

July 2020 Global Price Watch

July 2020

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • In West Africa, market supplies were sufficient to meet demand, but below last year due to production deficits and COVID-19 related disruptions. Normal lean seasonal demand increases continued but remained at below-average levels given the low purchasing power and limited cross-border trade across the region. Insecurity-related market disruptions persisted in the Greater Lake Chad basin, the Tibesti region, and the Liptako-Gourma region. Staple food prices were below average across much of the Sahel, but average to above average in deficit areas. Prices were substantially above average in Nigeria and several coastal countries facing currency depreciation and high transport costs.

  • In¬†East Africa, staple food price trends varied across the region. COVID-19 related movement restrictions continued to contribute to some atypical supply, demand, and price patterns. Maize prices declined in surplus-producing Uganda and Tanzania with the progression of May-to-August harvests and in a context of weak regional demand. Prices increased seasonally in Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan, and Sudan as stocks tightened ahead of October-to-December harvests. Prices declined on urban markets of Kenya following the arrival of international imports. Good animal body conditions led to elevated livestock prices.

  • In Southern Africa, maize supply on major markets continued increasing as the 2020/21 marketing year progressed in most countries of the region. Prices declined seasonally or stabilized in many countries. South Africa continued exporting maize to structurally-deficit countries of the region, notably Zimbabwe where regional imports have expanded considerably in recent months following the easing of phytosanitary (GMO) restrictions. Zambia maintained a ban on formal maize exports but continued exporting via informal channels due to favorable prices in neighboring countries.

  • In Central America, maize supplies were average while market speculation led to temporary disruptions in bean supply. Maize prices were stable or decreasing while beans prices increased seasonally in June. Maize prices remained above average while bean prices rose to significantly above average levels across the region. In Haiti, local and imported staple food supplies were at average to below-average levels in June. Staple food prices generally increased and remained above 2019 and five-year average levels. The Haitian gourde depreciated further against the USD.

  • In Central Asia, wheat price trends were stable or decreasing on average in Afghanistan and Kazakhstan. Wheat prices increased in Pakistan. In Yemen, the broader conflict and macroeconomic context continued to disrupt overall market functioning and food access; staple food prices remained above-average.

  • International staple food markets are well supplied. Rice and wheat prices decreased while maize and soybean prices increased on average in June (Figure 2). Global crude oil prices remained below average but increased further for a second consecutive month as countries continue to lift stay-at-home orders while global fertilizer prices were stable or falling in June.

About Price Watch

Price Watch offers a monthly summary and outlook on global, regional and national trends of key commodity prices in FEWS NET countries. Analysis may touch on global issues, such as fuel prices or exchange rates, if they are likely to influence staple food prices in FEWS NET countries. The accompanying Price Watch Annex details price trends by country.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics