Price Watch

December 2022 Global Price Watch

December 2022

IPC v3.1 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.1 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.1 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • In West Africa, staple prices declined seasonally due to ongoing harvests. Overall, prices remained well above average in the region due to low carry-over stocks, export restrictions, and prolonged or escalating insecurity in the Sahel, strong demand, and currency depreciation in the coastal countries of the Gulf of Guinea. Prices are projected to trend above average in MY2022/23 due to greater needs for replenishment of stocks, persisting impediments to trade, and high transport costs. 

  • In East Africa, staple food prices were stable or declined seasonally due to increasing market supply from ongoing October-to-January harvest in Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, and Uganda. However, prices increased in Burundi, Tanzania, parts of Ethiopia, and South Sudan due to the ongoing lean season and conflict-related supply disruptions. Livestock prices varied depending on the availability of feed and water. Prices remained elevated exacerbated by the impacts of the war in Ukraine on global trade disruptions in fertilizer, grains, and oil crop commodities and fuel.   

  • In Southern Africa, maize prices increased seasonally in November across most markets and remained above the previous year and five-year averages, driven by declines in stock-to-use ratios and increased transportation costs. Interest rates increases over the past several months have resulted in higher debt servicing costs, constraining public expenditure on agricultural support. Maize grain prices are expected to continue to rise across the region until they peak seasonally in February. Favorable weather conditions and elevated prices are expected to incentivize increased area planted for the summer 2022/23 harvest; however increased production costs are anticipated to limit this effect.

  • In Central America, markets resumed normal operation following disruptions from tropical storms. White maize prices were stable, as increased production and transport costs offset increased primera harvest supply. Red bean prices declined in November following a sharp increase the previous month related to speculation following tropical storms. In Haiti, market functionality improved moderately despite persistent insecurity. Local food prices increased across most markets, driven by a below-average fall harvest and high transportation costs.

  • In Central Asia, wheat production in Kazakhstan is estimated to have increased by 10 percent compared to last year. In Afghanistan wheat flour prices are stable in November, driven by a stable currency, though prices remain well above last year and the two-year average. In Yemen, staple food prices remained stable in Aden while in Sana’a City wheat flour prices dropped six percent and cooking oil 14 percent compared to last month. Steady fuel availability in Aden has driven stable fuel prices, and diesel and petrol prices in Sana’a remained stable as well despite detainment oil vessels outside Al Hudaydah port.

  • International markets were sufficiently supplied. Global maize and wheat prices decreased due to seasonal supply increases and extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.  Rice and soybean prices increased due to strong demand. Global crude oil prices increased due to decreased supply while international fertilizer prices decreased as demand weakened and European production increased. However, prices remained above the previous year and the five-year average. 

About Price Watch

Price Watch offers a monthly summary and outlook on global, regional and national trends of key commodity prices in FEWS NET countries. Analysis may touch on global issues, such as fuel prices or exchange rates, if they are likely to influence staple food prices in FEWS NET countries. The accompanying Price Watch Annex details price trends by country.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics