Price Watch

December 2021 Global Price Watch

December 2021

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • In West Africa, market supplies increased with ongoing harvests but remained below average due to relatively lower carry-over stocks and production compared to 2020/21. Demand remained above average due to increased replenishment of stocks as well as institutional and industrial procurement. Prices decreased seasonally compared to the previous month but remained above average. Supply and demand trends, depreciating national exchange rates in select countries, and rising transport costs will maintain above-average prices for local and imported commodities.

  • In East Africa, prices increased in most markets in Tanzania, Uganda, and Burundi as supplies tightened before the December-to-January harvest. Prices declined in markets in the main producing regions of Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda, and South Sudan due to the ongoing October-to-January harvest. However, prices were atypically stable or increased in south-eastern Ethiopia, north-eastern Uganda, rural South Sudan, and Somalia due to below-average production, disrupted trade, and currency depreciation.

  • In Southern Africa, markets and the milling subsector were well-supplied with maize following above-average production during the 2020/21 production year. In November, prices followed seasonally stable trends and remained lowest in Malawi and South Africa, supporting exports within the region and beyond. Planting for the 2021/22 production season was delayed in localized areas due to agroclimatic conditions. High fertilizer costs may constrain production, especially in South Africa. While firm international commodity prices supported regional export earnings, many regional currencies continued to depreciate. 

  • In Central America, although markets were well supplied and operating normally, prices remained elevated compared to 2020 and average levels. Maize prices were stable following primera harvests, while local bean prices increased atypically due to a combination of increasing transportation costs, irregular rainfall, and government purchases. In Haiti, fuel shortages, political unrest, and insecurity continued to disrupt commercial activities. Marketing system constraints, especially into and out of Port-au-Price, increased local and imported commodity prices.

  • In Central Asia, wheat prices were stable or increasing at already elevated levels. Wheat prices in Kazakhstan and Pakistan tracked international reference market trends, stabilizing after increasing earlier in the year. Prices increased across Afghanistan with the depreciation of the AFN and due to elevated prices in regional source markets. In Yemen, prices remained above average due to protracted conflict and persistent depreciation of the YER. Price trends differed significantly between internationally recognized government (IRG) and Sana’a-based authorities (SBA) controlled areas. 

  • International staple food markets remained well supplied. Rice and maize prices were stable while wheat prices continued rising at already elevated levels. Global crude oil and fertilizer prices, along with freight costs, reached five-year high levels in October.

About Price Watch

Price Watch offers a monthly summary and outlook on global, regional and national trends of key commodity prices in FEWS NET countries. Analysis may touch on global issues, such as fuel prices or exchange rates, if they are likely to influence staple food prices in FEWS NET countries. The accompanying Price Watch Annex details price trends by country.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics