August 2024 Global Price Watch

• In West Africa, cereal prices increased in several markets across the Sahel in July 2024 due to the lean season. Staple food prices started decreasing in parts of Cameroon, driven by new harvests. In Nigeria, inflation decreased slightly for the first time in almost two years with some easing staple food prices. Prices remained significantly above five-year average levels due to below-average stocks, import demand, insecurity, and cross-border trade restrictions. Wider seasonal price declines are expected in September/October with the main rainfed harvests.
• In East Africa, staple food prices generally declined or stabilized in July due to increased supplies from the ongoing May to September harvests across most markets in Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Burundi. However, tightening stocks drove price increases in Sudan and South Sudan. Improved pasture, water, and browse availability led to increased or sustained high livestock prices in pastoral areas. Persistent conflict, scarce hard currency, and local currency depreciation maintained high inflation levels in Sudan, South Sudan, and Burundi.
• In Southern Africa, maize prices generally increased in July due to the El Niño-induced drought and depleting harvest stocks. While Tanzania showed price stability due to the recent bumper harvest, South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi, and parts of Mozambique have seen significant annual price increases due to reduced harvests, elevated demand, and trade restrictions. The region is expected to register a negative maize balance in the 2024/25 marketing year, with Tanzania emerging as a potential key exporter. This production shortfall will likely drive further price increases, with inflation risks and currency depreciation potentially exacerbating regional market challenges. The drought has also affected hydropower generation in some countries, potentially impacting economic activities and food security.
• In Central America, white maize supply was close to average, and prices showed mixed trends compared to the previous month. Black and red bean supply remained below average, and prices were stable or increased. In Haiti, security conditions hindered wholesale market operations and trade activities in Port-au-Prince. Locally produced grains were stable or declined after the spring harvest. In Venezuela, prices were stable in local and foreign currencies. Annual and monthly inflation continued to ease and reached its lowest level in 2024.
• In the Middle East and Asia, the export price of milling wheat in Kazakhstan declined marginally but remained within the stable range. Wheat flour prices were mixed: stable in the Sana’a Based Authority (SBA) area of Yemen;marginally increased in Afghanistan, the internationally-recognized government (IRG) area of Yemen, and Pakistan; and significantly increased in Lebanon.
• International staple food markets were adequately supplied in July, and global staple food prices declined due to improved production outlooks except for rice (prices increased due to supply concerns and export restrictions). Crude oil prices decreased amid economic uncertainties, while fertilizer prices rose due to higher crop prices and tight supplies. Fertilizer prices in July were below 2023 levels but remained above the five-year average.

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