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This paper is part of a series of guidance documents developed by FEWS NET on integrating advanced sectoral concepts and techniques into scenario development. Scenario development is an important methodology underpinning FEWS NET’s food security analysis and projections of the evolution of food security in a particular area. The eight-step process (outlined below) involves the development of specific assumptions about key factors or shocks (anomalies), analysis of how these factors will impact food and income sources of the populations of concern, and consideration of likely responses by various actors. FEWS NET analysts combine these assumptions with a strong understanding of current conditions to estimate future food security outcomes and designate the level of acute food insecurity using the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), the global standard for classifying food security. FEWS NET uses the scenario development methodology to prepare its Food Security Outlook reports, which provide decision makers with early warning and projections of food security outcomes eight months ahead.