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Scenario Development for Food Security Early Warning

  • Guidance Documents
  • Global
  • January 2018
Scenario Development for Food Security Early Warning

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  • Summary

  • Summary

    Food security early warning requires the estimation of future food security outcomes many months in advance, so that decision makers have adequate time to plan for and respond to potential humanitarian crises. However, the complex web of factors shaping food security makes it impossible to definitively predict future outcomes. Scenario development is a methodology that allows FEWS NET to reconcile these two issues by developing a “most likely” scenario of the future. This allows FEWS NET to fulfill its primary mandate to provide early warning on food security crises to decision makers. This paper is the first in a series of guidance documents developed by FEWS NET on integrating advanced sectoral concepts and techniques into the scenario development process.

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