Suivi saisonnier

Average to above-average and well distributed rainfall over most of the region except for parts of the west

Octobre 2019

IPC v3.0 Phase d'Insécurité Alimentaire Aiguë

1: Minimale
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Urgence
5: Famine
Serait probablement pire, au moins une phase, sans l'assistance humanitaire en cours ou programmée
La manière de classification que FEWS NET utilise est compatible avec l’IPC. Une analyse qui est compatible avec l’IPC suit les principaux protocoles de l’IPC mais ne reflète pas nécessairement le consensus des partenaires nationaux en matière de sécurité alimentaire.

IPC v3.0 Phase d'Insécurité Alimentaire Aiguë

1: Minimale
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pire
Serait probablement pire, au moins une phase, sans
l'assistance humanitaire en cours ou programmée
La manière de classification que FEWS NET utilise est compatible avec l’IPC. Une analyse qui est compatible avec l’IPC suit les principaux protocoles de l’IPC mais ne reflète pas nécessairement le consensus des partenaires nationaux en matière de sécurité alimentaire.
Pour les pays suivis à distance par FEWS NET, un contour coloré est utilisé pour représenter la classification de l’IPC la plus élevée dans les zones de préoccupation.

IPC v3.0 Phase d'Insécurité Alimentaire Aiguë

Pays de présence:
1: Minimale
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Urgence
5: Famine
Pays suivis à distance:
1: Minimale
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pire
Serait probablement pire, au moins une phase, sans
l'assistance humanitaire en cours ou programmée
Concentration de personnes déplacées – passez le curseur au-dessus de la carte pour voir la classification de la sécurité alimentaire des camps de déplacés au Nigéria.
La manière de classification que FEWS NET utilise est compatible avec l’IPC. Une analyse qui est compatible avec l’IPC suit les principaux protocoles de l’IPC mais ne reflète pas nécessairement le consensus des partenaires nationaux en matière de sécurité alimentaire.
Pour les pays suivis à distance par FEWS NET, un contour coloré est utilisé pour représenter la classification de l’IPC la plus élevée dans les zones de préoccupation.

Messages clés

  • The ITF (Intertropical Front) started its southward retreat since the third dekad of August, which means the end of the rainy season in the Sahelian zone is nearing.

  • The minor rainy season from August to October in the bi-modal zone has so far been characterized by mostly average to above average and well distributed rainfall. 

  • The rainy season in the unimodal part of West Africa that has been characterized by mostly adequate and well distributed rains will end in October.  Globally average to above average harvest is expected through the end of the season.

  • A 4-week delay of the onset of rainfall in an area where the growing season is just 3-month long caused a significant pasture production deficit in the pastoral areas of Senegal for the second consecutive year.

Update on Seasonal Progress

  • The ITF’s southward migration that started in early September is ongoing and it was positioned between 12.9 in south central Niger and 18.8 degrees of latitude in northwestern Mauritania in late September (Figure 1).  It was near its climatological position in Chad, slightly north of it in Mauritania and south of it in eastern Mali and Niger in late September.  This is a clear sign that the end of the rainy season is already starting in areas north of the ITF - the agro pastoral part of the Sahel. However, the ITF is expected to fluctuate about its climatological position for a little while before its complete annual retreat.  Therefore, there is still a chance for a few rainfall events even in the northern part of the Sahel.
  • In general, apart from the extreme western part of the Sahel this season’s rainfall has been average to above average in the region.  Only a few short-lived dryness pockets of limited size were observed here and there in June and July.  However, the season rainfall has also been characterized by good time distribution, which has resulted into favorable moisture conditions for planted crops including crops in the aforementioned June or July deficit pocket areas. River flows have also been normal to above normal.  Consequently, pasture and crop production is expected to be average to above average over most of the region expect for the western part of the Sahel that experienced severe dryness during the first part of the growing period.
  • The western part of the Sahel, particularly Senegal and southern Mauritania was affected by severe rainfall deficits coupled with bad time distribution of rainfall until early August, which caused significant planting delays.  This area experienced the same problems in June and July of the 2018 rainy season and relief came in early August.  There is a strong similarity between the 2018 and 2019 rainfall pattern up to this point (early October).  Last year, however, the end of the rainy season was about two week late compared to normal as it extended until late October.
    • In Senegal, the 2018 rainy season extended until late October with average to above average and well distributed rainfall which resulted in above average crop production.  Production in the 2019 season could continue if good rains continue until late October. Pasture production was extremely low last year and the same scenario is expected for the current season (Fig. 2). 
    • In Mauritania, over 70 percent of the agricultural production system depends on hydrology, and since the hydrological conditions have been good, the agricultural production shortfall is not expected to be significant even in the case of an early cessation of rains.
  • According to the short and medium term forecasts from NOAA/CPC, average to above average rainfall is expected over most of the Sudanian and Guinean zones of the region until the end of October.

Forecasts

  • The seasonal forecast from NOAA-NCEP has yet to be updated.  However, the one performed in early September indicated mostly above average rainfall conditions for the month of October, which is the last month of the season in many parts of West Africa.

À Propos de ce Rapport

Le suivi saisonnier est fourni pour chacune des quatre régions couvertes par FEWS NET pendant la saison de production. Ce rapport offre une mise à jour sur les précipitations totales, l'impact sur la production et les prévisions à court terme. Élaboré par le chercheur régional FEWS NET USGS et le responsable technique régional FEWS NET, le suivi saisonnier est établi tous les 20 jours pendant la saison de production. 

Pour en savoir plus sur notre travail, cliquez ici.

About FEWS NET

Le Réseau des systèmes d’alerte précoce contre la famine est l’un des principaux prestataires d’alertes précoces et d’analyses de l’insécurité alimentaire. Constitué par l’USAID en 1985 pour aider les décideurs à planifier pour les crises humanitaires, FEWS NET fournit des analyses factuelles  concernant quelque 35 pays. Les membres des équipes de mise en œuvre incluent la NASA, la NOAA, le département américain de l ‘Agriculture (USDA) et le gouvernement des États-Unis (USGS), de même que Chemonics International Inc. et Kimetrica. Vous trouverez d’autres informations sur notre travail.

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