Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Messages clés

• Nigeria’s macroeconomic indicators continue to improve. Foreign exchange reserves continue to grow, consumer price index (CPI) reached its lowest level in two years in March 2018, and global crude oil prices remain relatively strong. These trends are helping to gradually bring Nigeria’s economy out of recession. 

• The value of the Nigerian Naira (NGN) remains well below historical levels but nonetheless continues to steadily improve relative to previous months. Nigeria’s Q42017 positive trade balance improved over the previous quarter, reaching its highest level since 2014. 

• Maize, millet, and sorghum prices remained stable or slightly above previous months in most markets. Legume prices are higher than both last year and average price levels, due in large part to dryness and an early end to the rainy season. 

• Prices in northeastern Nigeria are generally higher than other regions as a result of insecurity. Populations depend heavily on market purchases but many markets are either not functioning at all or functioning minimally with limited supplies. 

• The cost of the Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket (SMEB) for a family of five in northeastern Nigeria increased from December 2017 to March 2018. However, the SMEB in Damaturu and Maiduguri markets have decreased five and eight percent respectively between February and March 2018. 

• Market demand is expected to increase nationwide with the ongoing month of Ramadan and the beginning of lean season in July. Prices are expected to remain above average until the arrival of the main harvest in October. Above-average demand from neighboring countries of Niger, Chad, and Cameroon is expected due to dryness in these areas during the recent growing season.