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In the Northwest and Southwest region, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will likely become more widespread between February to May 2023 scenario period. Low household grain stock from consecutive seasons of low production is expected to continue driving increased reliance on market purchases and food assistance. Atypically low incomes and anticipated increases in already high staple food prices will further limit poor households’ access to food, driving their engagements in severe negative coping, including debt accrual from buying food on credit and asset sales to stretch their purchasing power for basic foods.
Flooding in the Far North region has displaced many and caused substantial damage to cropland, livestock, water resources, and road and sanitation infrastructure, impeding humanitarian operations in some affected areas. As reported by WFP, the floods affected more than 250,000 persons in Logone et Chari, Mayo Danay and Mayo-Tsanaga divisions between September and October 2022 and destroyed about 27,400 hectares of cropland. Persons affected by Islamic insurgency are among the most affected, with more than 90,000 people affected in Logone-et-Chari and Mayo-Tsanaga divisions.
Food access has improved overall for many households across the Far North, with the availability of main harvests in October and November. However, many households in the Logone et Chari, Mayo Danay, and Mayo-Tsanaga divisions still face food consumption deficits due to the compounding effect of widespread insecurity, low production, flooding, and atypically high staple food prices. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) area-level outcomes are likely to persist for Mayo-Sava, Logone-et-Chari, and Mayo- Tsanaga, with an increasing number of persons expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase3) or worst outcomes amongst displaced households and those recently affected by floods.
This Key Message Update provides a broad summary of FEWS NET's current and projected analysis of likely acute food insecurity outcomes in this geography. Learn more about our work here.