Malawi

Southern Malawi is expected to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security outcomes due to the impacts of Tropical Cyclone Freddy, as most households have limited food and income from own-produced crops as well as below-average access to off-farm income-earning opportunities. While most of the camps for internally displaced people have been closed, many affected households are still without proper shelter and residing in temporary shelters within their villages. On the other hand, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in central and northern Malawi until September due to the availability of food and income from the main harvest and tobacco sales season, which both begin in April.

Reports from the Department of Disaster Management Affairs and inter-agency post-disaster assessment indicated Tropical Cyclone Freddy's impacts have placed many children, pregnant women, and lactating mothers at risk of malnutrition in southern Malawi. The cyclone's effects on the crop harvest losses has reduced household food consumption, disrupted proper child-feeding practices, and made it difficult for children to access adequate nutrition services. Broader access to health services has also been hampered, causing challenges in the treatment of illness amid an increase in cholera cases. The concurrence of reduced food intake, increased disease incidence, and disrupted services will likely contribute to rising acute malnutrition rates.

Based on reports from WFP, 344,000 individuals have received two-month rations in four of the worst cyclone-affected districts, including Chikwawa, Mulanje, Nsanje, and Phalombe, as of May 25. This figure represents nearly 15 percent of the total population in these areas, and WFP plans to reach a total of 715,000 people (30 percent of the population) in the coming month. While this level of assistance is likely preventing food consumption gaps among the direct beneficiaries, the scale of assistance is below the population in need in these areas and will be quickly depleted, considering household-level crop losses in these districts ranged from 30-90 percent and alternative food and income sources are limited. Without a greater scale-up in assistance that is sustained through September, Crisis (ICP Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist.

High staple food prices continue to exacerbate food insecurity, especially in southern Malawi. However, maize prices decreased in most areas in April, following seasonal trends as maize supplies increase due to the ongoing harvests. According to FEWS NET’s price monitoring data, maize declined by around 5 to 50 percent from March to April. Exceptions are recorded in northern Malawi, where maize prices in Jenda and Mzuzu increased by 8 and 21 percent, respectively. These increases are attributed to seasonal delays in the maize harvest in the areas surrounding Mzuzu, mainly due to atypical rainfall that has impeded dry harvesting. Additionally, maize volumes imported informally from Zambia to Jenda fell by around 20 percent in April compared to March, according to FEWS NET’s cross-border monitoring data.

According to the Tobacco Commission, Malawi produced around 126 million kilograms of tobacco in 2023, which represents a 12 percent increase compared to the 85 million kilograms produced in 2022. Additionally, favorable prices have motivated tobacco-producing farmers to sell most of the harvest, and the amount sold by mid-May was already nearly three times higher than the same time last year. As reported by the World Bank, tobacco typically accounts for 60 percent of Malawi’s exports, 13 percent of GDP, and 23 percent of the total tax base. While income from tobacco sales is primarily earned by middle and better-off households, the boost in income is expected to support both an increase in tobacco-related labor demand and labor demand for planting during the winter agricultural season, which will in turn lead to an increase in income among very poor and poor households who rely on this income source. Overall, this is expected to significantly improve poor households' ability to purchase sufficient food, especially in central and northern districts.