Somalie

As Somalia begins to slowly emerge from the historic 2020-2023 drought, it remains vital for humanitarian food and nutrition assistance to rapidly reach the millions of households who remain acutely food insecure. Many households endured the significant erosion of their livelihoods, became destitute, or accrued substantial debts to survive. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are currently widespread, and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes persist in localized pastoral and agropastoral areas and many settlements of internally displaced people (IDPs). A scale-down of humanitarian assistance is expected to occur between July and September 2023 due to insufficient funds, leaving additional pastoral areas and IDP settlements to deteriorate to Emergency (IPC Phase 4).

During the January to March 2023 jilaal dry season, the impacts of drought continued to result in significantly low food availability and access across most of Somalia. Many poor households had below-average or negligible food stocks from the 2022 deyr harvest, few to no saleable livestock, and little-to-no livestock milk production. However, food security conditions began to improve gradually, especially in parts of the south, supported by less severe rainfall deficits in late 2022 compared to the past four seasons, a decline in staple food prices, and sustained, large-scale, multi-sectoral humanitarian assistance.  

A near-average April to June 2023 gu season rainfall is expected to facilitate the partial recovery of cropping and livestock production conditions, particularly in areas where the drought was less severe and where humanitarian aid mitigated the scale of livelihood erosion and destitution. Nevertheless, poor and destitute agropastoral households no longer hold the asset base or purchasing power to re-invest in or benefit from their traditional agricultural livelihoods. The gu harvest in July, as well as associated crop sales and labor income, is expected to be below the 10-year average, and the impact of the rains on livestock reproduction will not manifest until the subsequent birthing period during the 2023 deyr season.

Given the limited pace and degree of recovery during the gu rains, millions of households are expected to have moderate to large food consumption gaps or engage in severe coping strategies during the July to September hagaa season, which is dry for most of the country. Humanitarian funding is sufficient to deliver food assistance to around 4-5 million people through June, but a massive scale-down in assistance levels is anticipated from July to September, according to the Food Security Cluster. Amid low levels of aid, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes will likely become more widespread in IDP settlements and the more arid pastoral and agropastoral areas of central and northern Somalia.

Although the severity of the drought is easing in the south, there remains a risk of Famine among IDP populations in Baidoa, Mogadishu, Galkacyo, and Dhusamareeb and pastoral areas in central Somalia in the Hawd Pastoral, Addun Pastoral, and Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zones, if humanitarian aid ceases to be delivered to these areas. Given the erosion or complete loss of livelihoods, minimal sources of income, and high food prices, these populations would most likely face worsening hunger and rapid increases in acute malnutrition levels, leading to rising hunger-related mortality. If aid is absent throughout the July to September period, Famine (IPC Phase 5) could occur. However, conditions in rural Bay Region are on an improving trajectory, alleviating the risk of Famine for households that remain in or have returned to this area.