Afghanistan

Notwithstanding the moderate seasonal improvement in household access to income and food in April as winter subsides, many poor households continue to have atypically low access to income for food purchases compared to average. This trend, coupled with higher-than-normal food prices and limited food stocks until the harvest begins, continues to drive food consumption deficits for millions of households. Food consumption deficits are largest in Ghor province, where many poor households face extreme financial difficulty purchasing food and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are ongoing. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to remain widespread in the rest of the country through May. While humanitarian food assistance deliveries are declining, aid continues to play an integral role in moderating food consumption deficits in several areas where Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) and Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are mapped.

• With the arrival of the harvest in the lowlands in June, household food availability and income earned from agricultural labor will seasonally improve across much of the country, though localized production deficits are expected in some areas. Widespread improvement to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes is expected. In the highlands, however, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist as the harvest does not start until later in 2023. In these areas, modest improvements in income from labor and livestock are likely; however, the income earned is not likely to allow households to meet their food needs. In Ghor Province, the availability of income is anticipated to mitigate the largest consumption deficits as income seasonally improves; however, consumption deficits consistent with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected from June to September.   
• October to April precipitation was largely below average across much of the country, with drought conditions re-emerging in northern areas, marking the third-consecutive drought year in the north. While water supplies were sufficient to support favorable production prospects for rainfed and irrigated wheat across much of the country, poor rainfed crop conditions in some northern areas and flooding in the east are reducing production prospects. There are also reports of locusts in localized areas of northern Afghanistan. While the information on the extent of crop damage is limited, it is FEWS NET's analysis that the locust impacts on crops are localized and not as significant a driver as the drought.
• WFP reached around 13 million people in March and 9.2 million in April with food, nutrition, and livelihood assistance nationwide. Food assistance typically starts declining in the spring as households access income from labor and food security conditions improve. However, ration sizes were atypically cut from 75 to 50 percent in March due to funding shortfalls. Furthermore, after a brief resumption of assistance delivery for almost a week in late March and early April, aid distributions in Ghor province were suspended again by the local government for most of April.