Precipitation anomalies:
Seasonal cumulative precipitation from October 1, 2018 through May 15, 2019 is significantly above average across most of the country. Most areas received upwards of 150 percent of long-term normal with relatively small areas in the northeast and southwest experiencing average to slightly above average conditions. The excess rainfall will continue to provide abundant water during flowering and maturity of winter and spring wheat in May to June.
Snowpack and snow water storage:
Figure 2 indicates the completion of snowpack in most parts of the country except at higher elevations. The timing of the snowpack depletion is typical for this time of year in the region.
Figure 3 highlights the status of snow water volumes in Arghandab, Balkhab, Hari Rod and Kabul basins as of May 20. The snowmelt water availability is concluding on time across the basins except for a few in the northeast with permanent snowpack. The above-average snowmelt water availability during the 2018/19 season has been beneficial for replenishing reservoirs and providing above average water for irrigated wheat crops.
FORECASTS
Precipitation
Figure 4. Cumulative precipitation forecasts for 7-day periods ending May 28 and June 4 are shown in the left and right panels of Figure 4 respectively. Medium to heavy rain (30 to 80 mm) is forecast over the eastern, northeastern, and central provinces for the period ending May 28 (left panel). Thereafter typical, dry conditions are expected across the country except for light rains (15 to 30 mm) in northern Badakhshan and Nuristan provinces for the period ending June 4 (right panel).
Temperature:
The North American Multi-Model Ensemble forecast of 2-meter air temperature anomalies for June to August (with May initial conditions) indicates 40 to 60 percent probability of above-average temperatures in the northern region (Figure 5). The above-average temperatures are expected to provide necessary thermal energy for healthy grain filling and grain hardening of wheat in May to June. The above-average temperatures are also likely to facilitate timely harvest of wheat.
