Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Many poor households in bimodal areas are atypically market dependent during the ongoing lean season and are expected to remain heavily market dependent through December. Despite this, food access has steadily improved from early 2017 as a result of price declines that began in May and have continued through September. The price of a kilogram of maize in Arusha has declined steadily from the peak price of 1,228 Tsh in May, down to 577 Tsh in September. Prices are now similar to the five-year September average price of 515 Tsh. Similarly, the retail price of maize also declined from a peak of 947 Tsh in April in Mbeya market, situated in the surplus-producing southern highlands, to 517 Tsh in September. This price is also now near average. Near-average Msimu production and the export ban instituted by the Tanzania government in June have kept local maize prices low, despite substantial regional deficits. Given the expectation that the ban will remain in place in the coming months and average Vuli and Msimu harvest, prices are expected to remain near average throughout the projection period.

The October to December Vuli season is underway in Kagera, Kigoma, Geita, Mwanza, Mara, Simiyu, Arusha, Kilimanjaro, Tanga, and Morogoro. While the Vuli season only contributes 15-18 percent to overall annual national cereal production, it is an important season for poor households, both through agricultural labor income and the harvest of short-cycle food crops in December that marks the end of the lean season. Although prices are now at near normal levels, poor households in northern and central areas face some difficulty purchasing both inputs for the season and sufficient food needs and will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through February 2018, when the full Vuli harvest is expected to improve food security to Minimal (IPC Phase 1).

In unimodal southern surplus-producing highlands of Katavi, Iringa, Mbeya, Rukwa, Ruvuma, and Songea, land preparation is ongoing and planting is anticipated to begin on time in November. Given the forecast for above-average tending to average rainfall, May to July production is expected to be average to slightly above average and will contribute up to 70 percent of overall national cereal output. Poor households in southern unimodal areas are expected to have normal food access and normal harvests and maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) throughout the projection period.   

As of September 30, UNHCR indicated that there were 364,276 refugees in Nyarugusu, Mtendeli, Nduta, and Lumasi camps in Kagera and Kigoma regions in Tanzania. An estimated 261,061 of whom are refugees from Burundi and arrived after April 2015. According to UNHCR, about 1,700 refugees returned Burundi in September and an additional 12,000 are anticipated to return to Burundi in the coming months. For those who remain, access to food and income sources outside of humanitarian assistance are limited. Currently, most refugees are Stressed (IPC Phase 2!), supported by on-going humanitarian assistance. With secured funds, food assistance at current levels is likely to continue through December. However, funding levels beyond December are unknown and in the absence of assistance, or in the event that funding shortfalls lead to further reductions in the size of the ration provided, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity is likely.