Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Throughout April, sporadic attacks have continued in Western Bahr el Ghazal, Western Equatoria, and parts of Unity and Upper Nile State, despite the peace deal signed by the Government and the Sudan People’s Liberation Army in Opposition (SPLA-IO) in August 2015. However, Jonglei and most parts of Upper Nile have remained relatively calm in recent months compared to last year. With the recent return and swearing in of First Vice President Riek Machar, it is assumed conflict will further reduce with the formation of the Transitional Government of National Unity. It is possible, however, that clashes will continue between government forces and other armed groups not affiliated with parties to the peace deal. Additionally, tensions arising from disagreement over cantonment areas in the Greater Bahr el Ghazal and Greater Equatoria areas are likely to continue.

Although the South Sudanese Pound (SSP) has appreciated from 41 SSP/USD in March to 31 SSP/USD in April, macroeconomic conditions remain very poor. The scarcity of foreign reserves and depreciation of the SSP has reduced the quantity that traders are able to import and put many out of business. FEWS NET’s cross border monitoring indicates that sorghum imported from Uganda, the largest staple exporter to South Sudan, in the first quarter of 2016 was approximately three times lower than the first quarter of 2015. Similarly, sorghum imports from Ethiopia were 84 percent lower in the first quarter of 2016 than 2015.

In March, prices of staple foods remained exorbitantly high, increasing more rapidly than previously expected. Fuel shortages continue to increase the cost of transporting food to interior markets, reducing market supply and contributing to high food prices. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the South Sudan annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 245.2 percent from March 2015 to March 2016. Over the same time period, the price of sorghum increased 446 percent in Juba, 408 percent in Wau, and 392 percent in Aweil. Compared to the five-year average, sorghum prices in March were 446, 507, and 571 percent above-average in Juba, Wau, and Aweil, respectively.

The start of first season rainfall was mixed in the bimodal areas of Western and Central Equatoria. A timely onset of rainfall was observed in April in Western Equatoria, but conflict-related displacement is limiting farmers’ access to planting their fields and below-average production is expected for some poor households. Rainfall has been erratic in Central Equatoria in April, but is expected to become fully established in May. The June to September main rainy season in most parts of South Sudan is forecast to be near-average tending to above-average in terms of total cumulative rainfall.

Livestock body conditions continue to deteriorate seasonally as the dry season progresses. Most livestock in GUN have been kept near homesteads due to the threat of cattle raiding and general insecurity. As a result, households have some access to livestock products, although at seasonally low levels. An assessment conducted in March by DCA, Nile Hope, and LWF found that livestock in Panyikang and Nasir counties of Upper Nile are currently grazing along Lol and Sobat rivers near homesteads, similarly allowing households access to milk. Livestock from Bor in Jonglei State have been migrated to Central and Eastern Equatoria where the security situation is relatively calm. Livestock owners in Nasir County were reportedly bartering their livestock for cereal at the border with Ethiopia.