Suivi saisonnier

Deyr rains subsided in most parts of the country in mid-October

22 Octobre 2014

IPC 2.0 Phase d'Insécurité Alimentaire Aiguë

1: Minimale
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Urgence
5: Famine
Concentration de personnes déplacées
Serait probablement pire, au moins une phase, sans l'assistance humanitaire en cours ou programmée
La manière de classification que FEWS NET utilise est compatible avec l’IPC. Une analyse qui est compatible avec l’IPC suit les principaux protocoles de l’IPC mais ne reflète pas nécessairement le consensus des partenaires nationaux en matière de sécurité alimentaire.

IPC 2.0 Phase d'Insécurité Alimentaire Aiguë

1: Minimale
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pire
Serait probablement pire, au moins une phase, sans
l'assistance humanitaire en cours ou programmée
La manière de classification que FEWS NET utilise est compatible avec l’IPC. Une analyse qui est compatible avec l’IPC suit les principaux protocoles de l’IPC mais ne reflète pas nécessairement le consensus des partenaires nationaux en matière de sécurité alimentaire.
Pour les pays suivis à distance par FEWS NET, un contour coloré est utilisé pour représenter la classification de l’IPC la plus élevée dans les zones de préoccupation.

IPC 2.0 Phase d'Insécurité Alimentaire Aiguë

Pays de présence:
1: Minimale
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Urgence
5: Famine
Concentration de personnes déplacées
Pays suivis à distance:
1: Minimale
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pire
Serait probablement pire, au moins une phase, sans
l'assistance humanitaire en cours ou programmée
Pour les pays suivis à distance par FEWS NET, un contour coloré est utilisé pour représenter la classification de l’IPC la plus élevée dans les zones de préoccupation.
Partenaires: 
USGS

Résumé

Both satellite and ground information reports show that the Deyr rains subsided between October 11 and October 20 in most parts of the country. Localized light showers to moderate rains with poor spatial and temporal distribution fell in parts of the Northwest, the Northeast, the central regions, and parts of southern regions (Figure 1). The rainfall estimate (RFE2) for October 11 to 20 shows that rain fell in most areas of the North, the central regions, and most of the southern regions including Gedo, Middle and Lower Juba, Bay, Middle and Lower Shabelle, and Hiraan Regions, but rainfall was 10 to 50 millimeters (mm) below the 2000 to 2013 average (Figure 2).

Situation

In the Northwest, localized light to moderate rains were received in between October 11 and 20. Poorly distributed, localized rains were received in the Nugal Valley, East Golis Pastoral livelihood zone, and the Sool Plateau in Sanaag Region. However, light to moderate rains with normal distribution were received across Sool Region. Togdheer Agropastoral, Hawd Pastoral, and West Golis Pastoral livelihood zones in Togdheer Region received light to moderate rains with poor spatial distribution. Guban Pastoral and West Golis Pastoral received no rains as is typical for this time of year as cooler weather resumed after some unusual rains in early October. The rains supported rangeland regeneration and allowed the establishment of pasture grasses.

In the Northeast, most areas received light to moderate rains, but in Bader-beyla and Alula Districts in the Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone in Bari Region, there was no rain. Iskushuban and Qardho Districts in Karkaar-Dharoor Pastoral livelihood zone received light showers, but Bossaso District remained dry. Hawd, Addun, and Nugal Valley Pastoral livelihood zones in northern Mudug and Nugal Regions received average rains with normal spatial distribution. The Sool Plateau in Bari Region received three days of moderate rainfall.

In the central regions, light showers were received in Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone and adjacent parts of the cowpea belt. Heavier rain fell in Addun Pastoral livelihood zone and adjacent areas of the cowpea belt in Galgaduud and Mudug Regions. Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone in the central regions also received near average amounts of rain. Generally, these rains supported the standing cowpea crops and pasture growth.

In the South, most agropastoral and pastoral areas received only light showers or no rain. Light showers were received in pockets in northern Gedo, but the rest of the region remained dry. In Hiraan, light showers fell in pockets. In Lower Shabelle, only the agropastoral area in Wanlaweyne District received moderate rainfall, and almost all of the rest of the region remained dry. However, moderate rains fell in most parts of Middle Shabelle Region outside of Balad District that did not receive any rain. In Lower Juba, Afmadow District received three days of rain while the rest of the region remained dry. Some pockets of Middle Juba received some very light, insignificant showers. Moderate rains with typical spatial and temporal distribution were received in most parts of Bakool and Bay Regions. Rain gauges in Baidoa, Bardale, Dinsor, and Qansaxdheere in Bay Region recorded 76 mm, 11 mm, 14 mm, and 67.5 mm with four, two, four, and two rainy days, respectively.

The current satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) shows improved pasture conditions in most pastoral areas in the North, but below-average vegetation conditions still persist in most parts of the South (Figure 3). The two-week precipitation forecast for October 23 to November 5 indicates there will be rainfall between 10 mm to 75 mm in most parts of the country. Heavy rains are expected in Sool and Sanaag Regions in the North, and in Bakool, Bay, Gedo, and Hiraan Regions in the South (Figure 4). Both the Shabelle and Juba Rivers are rising, and there is a moderate risk of flooding due to both heavy precipitation forecast in the country and recent, heavy rains in the Ethiopian highlands.

For more rain gauge data, please, contact Hydro@faoswalim.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.

À Propos de ce Rapport

Le suivi saisonnier est fourni pour chacune des quatre régions couvertes par FEWS NET pendant la saison de production. Ce rapport offre une mise à jour sur les précipitations totales, l'impact sur la production et les prévisions à court terme. Élaboré par le chercheur régional FEWS NET USGS et le responsable technique régional FEWS NET, le suivi saisonnier est établi tous les 20 jours pendant la saison de production. 

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About FEWS NET

Le Réseau des systèmes d’alerte précoce contre la famine est l’un des principaux prestataires d’alertes précoces et d’analyses de l’insécurité alimentaire. Constitué par l’USAID en 1985 pour aider les décideurs à planifier pour les crises humanitaires, FEWS NET fournit des analyses factuelles  concernant quelque 35 pays. Les membres des équipes de mise en œuvre incluent la NASA, la NOAA, le département américain de l ‘Agriculture (USDA) et le gouvernement des États-Unis (USGS), de même que Chemonics International Inc. et Kimetrica. Vous trouverez d’autres informations sur notre travail.

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