Suivi saisonnier

Cumulative April-June Gu 2019 rainfall predominantly below average

15 Juillet 2019

IPC v3.0 Phase d'Insécurité Alimentaire Aiguë

1: Minimale
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Urgence
5: Famine
Concentration de personnes déplacées
Serait probablement pire, au moins une phase, sans l'assistance humanitaire en cours ou programmée
La manière de classification que FEWS NET utilise est compatible avec l’IPC. Une analyse qui est compatible avec l’IPC suit les principaux protocoles de l’IPC mais ne reflète pas nécessairement le consensus des partenaires nationaux en matière de sécurité alimentaire.

IPC v3.0 Phase d'Insécurité Alimentaire Aiguë

1: Minimale
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pire
Serait probablement pire, au moins une phase, sans
l'assistance humanitaire en cours ou programmée
La manière de classification que FEWS NET utilise est compatible avec l’IPC. Une analyse qui est compatible avec l’IPC suit les principaux protocoles de l’IPC mais ne reflète pas nécessairement le consensus des partenaires nationaux en matière de sécurité alimentaire.
Pour les pays suivis à distance par FEWS NET, un contour coloré est utilisé pour représenter la classification de l’IPC la plus élevée dans les zones de préoccupation.

IPC v3.0 Phase d'Insécurité Alimentaire Aiguë

Pays de présence:
1: Minimale
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Urgence
5: Famine
Concentration de personnes déplacées
Pays suivis à distance:
1: Minimale
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pire
Serait probablement pire, au moins une phase, sans
l'assistance humanitaire en cours ou programmée
Pour les pays suivis à distance par FEWS NET, un contour coloré est utilisé pour représenter la classification de l’IPC la plus élevée dans les zones de préoccupation.
Partenaires: 
USGS

The establishment of the April-June 2019 Gu rains was delayed by two-three weeks across most of Somalia. Although some localized precipitation was reported in some parts of the South and Northwest in April, most of the country did not begin to receive rainfall until early to mid-May. Although moderate to heavy rainfall from mid-May to early June in northern regions and in large parts of central regions resulted in generally near-average cumulative rainfall in these areas, rainfall remained largely below average across most of the South. Little to no rainfall was reported from mid- to late June. According to CHIRPS satellite data and supported by ground information, most of the Northwest and South and parts of central Somalia received 100-300 millimeters of cumulative rainfall (Figure 1). In the Northeast, the coastal Northwest, and much of central Somalia, cumulative rainfall was 25-100 mm. Compared to the long-term mean, rainfall performance was predominantly below average. Rainfall deficits of 10-50 mm are present in the northwest, northeast, and parts of central regions, while 25-100 mm deficits are observed in large parts of the South (Figure 2). However, large parts of Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag regions and a few pockets in central and southern regions recorded a surplus of 10-50 mm.

Situation

In the Northwest, the full establishment of the Gu was delayed across most of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag regions, though light to moderate rains fell in localized areas in late April. In the last week of April and first week of May, little to no rainfall was received with few exceptions. From mid-May to early June, however, widespread moderate to heavy rains fell across most livelihood zones, which significantly improved rangeland resource availability and livestock body conditions. No precipitation was reported in the remainder of June. Overall, Gu seasonal rainfall performance was mixed, ranging from below average in Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed to above average in Togdheer and western Sool and Sanaag.

In the Northeast, the onset of the Gu was significantly delayed across all livelihood zones of Bari, Nugaal, and Mudug regions with no precipitation observed throughout April and through the first 10 days of May. The first rains occurred in mid-May with localized light to moderate rainfall reported in parts of Northern Inland Pastoral and East Golis Pastoral livelihood zones of Bari and moderate to heavy rainfall reported in localized areas of Hawd Pastoral and Addun Pastoral livelihood zones of Nugaal and Mudug. Moderate to heavy rains continued through early June, then subsided into dry conditions. Overall, Gu seasonal rainfall performance is considered below average.

In central regions, no precipitation was reported across Galgaduud and southern Mudug throughout April, signaling a significant delay in the start of the season. Although moderate to heavy rainfall fell in eastern areas in early May, western areas remained dry. Moderate to heavy rains fell across both regions from mid- to late-May but were highly localized at some points. By June, the rains had largely subsided. Gu seasonal rainfall performance is categorized as below average.    

In the South, the Gu rains were delayed until late April when light to moderate rainfall fell in most regions and above average rainfall fell in large parts of Juba and Gedo. In May, rainfall ranged from light to moderate to heavy, with the most amount of rainfall received in mid-May. Although light to moderate rains were reported in early June, the rains subsided completely by mid-June. Cumulative rainfall was highest in Middle and Lower Juba and lowest in Middle and Lower Shabelle. The Juba and Shabelle river water levels remained largely below average levels despite some fluctuation, and little to no flooding was reported across riverine areas. Overall, Gu seasonal performance was largely poor to below average.

The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the first 10 days of July shows favorable vegetation conditions in the North while negative anomalies are observed in central and southern regions (Figure 3). The NOAA Climate Prediction Center seven-day rainfall forecast ending July 21st suggests dry conditions across most of the country, signaling the end of the Gu season. However, localized areas in the Juba and Shabelle basins and parts of the Northwest are expected to receive rainfall amounts of up to 30 mm (Figure 4). It is typical that these areas receive some Hagaa rainfall from July to September.

For more rain gauge data, please, contact So-Hydro@fao.org or visit www.faoswalim.org

À Propos de ce Rapport

Le suivi saisonnier est fourni pour chacune des quatre régions couvertes par FEWS NET pendant la saison de production. Ce rapport offre une mise à jour sur les précipitations totales, l'impact sur la production et les prévisions à court terme. Élaboré par le chercheur régional FEWS NET USGS et le responsable technique régional FEWS NET, le suivi saisonnier est établi tous les 20 jours pendant la saison de production. 

Pour en savoir plus sur notre travail, cliquez ici.

About FEWS NET

Le Réseau des systèmes d’alerte précoce contre la famine est l’un des principaux prestataires d’alertes précoces et d’analyses de l’insécurité alimentaire. Constitué par l’USAID en 1985 pour aider les décideurs à planifier pour les crises humanitaires, FEWS NET fournit des analyses factuelles  concernant quelque 35 pays. Les membres des équipes de mise en œuvre incluent la NASA, la NOAA, le département américain de l ‘Agriculture (USDA) et le gouvernement des États-Unis (USGS), de même que Chemonics International Inc. et Kimetrica. Vous trouverez d’autres informations sur notre travail.

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