Suivi saisonnier

Dry conditions prevailed in most parts of Somalia

14 Décembre 2015

IPC 2.0 Phase d'Insécurité Alimentaire Aiguë

1: Minimale
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Urgence
5: Famine
Concentration de personnes déplacées
Serait probablement pire, au moins une phase, sans l'assistance humanitaire en cours ou programmée
La manière de classification que FEWS NET utilise est compatible avec l’IPC. Une analyse qui est compatible avec l’IPC suit les principaux protocoles de l’IPC mais ne reflète pas nécessairement le consensus des partenaires nationaux en matière de sécurité alimentaire.

IPC 2.0 Phase d'Insécurité Alimentaire Aiguë

1: Minimale
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pire
Serait probablement pire, au moins une phase, sans
l'assistance humanitaire en cours ou programmée
La manière de classification que FEWS NET utilise est compatible avec l’IPC. Une analyse qui est compatible avec l’IPC suit les principaux protocoles de l’IPC mais ne reflète pas nécessairement le consensus des partenaires nationaux en matière de sécurité alimentaire.
Pour les pays suivis à distance par FEWS NET, un contour coloré est utilisé pour représenter la classification de l’IPC la plus élevée dans les zones de préoccupation.

IPC 2.0 Phase d'Insécurité Alimentaire Aiguë

Pays de présence:
1: Minimale
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Urgence
5: Famine
Concentration de personnes déplacées
Pays suivis à distance:
1: Minimale
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pire
Serait probablement pire, au moins une phase, sans
l'assistance humanitaire en cours ou programmée
Pour les pays suivis à distance par FEWS NET, un contour coloré est utilisé pour représenter la classification de l’IPC la plus élevée dans les zones de préoccupation.
Partenaires: 
USGS

Summary

Rains continued to subside in most southern, northern, and central regions from December 1 to 10 (Figure 1). Lower and Middle Juba, however, received average rainfall amounts of 10 to 50 millimeters (mm), with typical spatial coverage. Localized showers were also received in parts of Gedo, Bay, and Nugaal Regions. The rainfall anomaly (RFE2) for December 1 to 10 was average in most northern and central regions, but below average (up to 25 mm) in parts of the South. Rainfall was 10 to 50 mm above the 2000-to-2010 mean in localized areas of Lower Juba Region (Figure 2). 

Situation

Rains continued to subside in most southern, northern, and central regions from December 1 to 10 (Figure 1). Lower and Middle Juba, however, received average rainfall amounts of 10 to 50 millimeters (mm), with typical spatial coverage. Localized showers were also received in parts of Gedo, Bay, and Nugaal Regions. The rainfall anomaly (RFE2) for December 1 to 10 was average in most northern and central regions, but below average (up to 25 mm) in parts of the South. Rainfall was 10 to 50 mm above the 2000-to-2010 mean in localized areas of Lower Juba Region (Figure 2).

In the Northwest, Guban Pastoral livelihood zone in Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed received localized, light to moderate rains between December 1 and 10. Togdheer, Sanaag, and Sool Regions remained dry. Below-average seasonal rainfall in Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone has resulted in poor pasture and water conditions and atypically high livestock migration.

In the Northeast, rains have subsided between December 1 and 10. Due to poor rainfall throughout the season in most parts of Bari, Nugaal, and North Mudug, rangeland conditions have further deteriorated and water and pasture access are well below average, negatively impacting livestock body conditions and production. The Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone in Bari, Nugaal, and Sanaag Regions has been the most affected.

In the central regions, no rainfall has been reported in any rural livelihood zones. However, due to average and above-average rains in October and November, pasture and water conditions remain good across the livelihood zones of the central regions.

In the South, rainfall performance varied across regions from December 1 to 10. Dry conditions have been reported in Hiiraan, Middle Shabelle, Bakool and most parts of Lower Shabelle. Light showers fell in most parts of Gedo and Bay Regions. Middle and Lower Juba Regions received the highest amounts of rainfall, with moderate distribution in most areas. However, the remaining areas of the South, including Lower Shabelle, Bakool, and Hiiraan Regions, received little or no rainfall. Due to substantial amounts of rainfall received in October and November, standing crops continue to develop well and rangeland resources are ample and accessible.

The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly indicates that vegetation levels are average throughout most of the country and above the 2001-to-2010 mean in most southern and central regions. However, vegetation remains below the 2001-to-2010 mean in Awdal, Bari, and Sanaag Regions in the North, and localized areas in Lower Shabelle, Lower and Middle Juba, and Gedo Regions in the South. The seven-day rainfall forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s Climate Prediction Center (NOAA/CPC) indicates likely rainfall amounts of 20-30 mm from December 14 to 20 in most southern and central regions and along the Indian Ocean coast. Most of the northern regions are likely to remain dry during the forecast period (Figure 4).

For more rain gauge data, please, contact so-hydro@faoswalim.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.

About this Report

FEWS NET will publish a Seasonal Monitor for Somalia every 10 days (dekad) through the end of the current October to December Deyr rainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the Deyr season to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Seasonal Monitor is valid through December 20, 2015 and is produced in collaboration with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) Somalia, the Somali Water and Land Information System (SWALIM), a number of other agencies, and several Somali non-governmental organizations (NGOs).

À Propos de ce Rapport

Le suivi saisonnier est fourni pour chacune des quatre régions couvertes par FEWS NET pendant la saison de production. Ce rapport offre une mise à jour sur les précipitations totales, l'impact sur la production et les prévisions à court terme. Élaboré par le chercheur régional FEWS NET USGS et le responsable technique régional FEWS NET, le suivi saisonnier est établi tous les 20 jours pendant la saison de production. 

Pour en savoir plus sur notre travail, cliquez ici.

About FEWS NET

Le Réseau des systèmes d’alerte précoce contre la famine est l’un des principaux prestataires d’alertes précoces et d’analyses de l’insécurité alimentaire. Constitué par l’USAID en 1985 pour aider les décideurs à planifier pour les crises humanitaires, FEWS NET fournit des analyses factuelles  concernant quelque 35 pays. Les membres des équipes de mise en œuvre incluent la NASA, la NOAA, le département américain de l ‘Agriculture (USDA) et le gouvernement des États-Unis (USGS), de même que Chemonics International Inc. et Kimetrica. Vous trouverez d’autres informations sur notre travail.

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