Famine Early Warning Systems Network

13 December 2022, Mogadishu – Amid an anticipated scale-down in humanitarian assistance starting in April 2023 due to insufficient funding, approximately 8.3 million people across Somalia are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity outcomes between April and June 2023. This unprecedented level of need within Somalia is driven by the impacts of five consecutive seasons of poor rainfall, a likely sixth season of below-average rainfall from March to June 2023, and exceptionally high food prices, exacerbated by concurrent conflict/insecurity and disease outbreaks. Furthermore, Famine (IPC Phase 5) is projected between April and June 2023¹ among agropastoral populations in Baidoa and Burhakaba districts of Bay region and among internally displaced people (IDP) in Baidoa town of Bay region and in Mogadishu.  These three areas are already currently experiencing very high levels of acute malnutrition and mortality consistent with Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes. In addition, an increasing number of people are expected to be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in multiple other areas across Somalia through mid-2023. The results of past integrated surveys conducted between May and July 2022 and subsequent IPC acute malnutrition analysis conducted in August remain valid, with the total estimated acute malnutrition burden in Somalia reaching approximately 1.8 million children, including 513,550 children who are likely to be severely malnourished, through July 2023.

In addition to the Famine (IPC Phase 5) projection in Bay region and Mogadishu, several areas in central and southern Somalia have an increased Risk of Famine between April and June 2023 if (1) the 2023 Gu season rainfall turns out to be poorer than currently predicted, leading to more crop and livestock production failures and (2) humanitarian assistance does not reach the country’s most vulnerable populations. The areas and population groups facing an increased Risk of Famine are Hawd Pastoral of Central and Hiiraan; Addun Pastoral of Northeast and Central; Coastal Deeh Pastoral of Central; Sorghum High Potential Agropastoral of Middle Shabelle; and IDP settlements in Garowe, Galkacyo, and Dollow. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) levels of acute malnutrition and elevated mortality levels are already occurring in these areas.

Funding for humanitarian food assistance is currently sufficient to reach over 5.8 million people per month, on average, through March 2023, which is expected to mitigate the size of the acutely food-insecure population and prevent the worsening of food security and nutrition outcomes in many areas. However, levels of acute food insecurity across Somalia remain very high and will further deteriorate if food assistance is not sustained at similar levels beyond March. Between October and December 2022, an estimated 5.6 million people are still experiencing Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or higher) outcomes, including 214,000 people estimated to be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), meaning they have not received sufficient food assistance to prevent food consumption gaps. While the level of food assistance has scaled up since July and is expected to continue at high levels through March, the number of people supported with food assistance will steeply decline by around 60-80 percent between April and June 2023. If humanitarian food assistance is not scaled up and sustained, then acute food insecurity and malnutrition levels are expected to deteriorate further and faster between April and June 2023, with approximately 8.3 million people expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes, including 2.7 million people that will likely be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and at least 727,000 people that will likely be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5).

Urgent and timely scaling up of integrated humanitarian assistance (in-kind food, cash/voucher transfers, nutrition, WASH, and health-related) is required through at least June 2023, and likely through late 2023, to prevent Famine (IPC Phase 5) – defined by extreme levels of food insecurity, acute malnutrition, and excess mortality, including starvation – among rural and IDP populations in Baidoa and Burhakaba districts of Bay Region, Baidoa town, and Mogadishu and to prevent the Risk of Famine in seven additional areas.

The conclusions above are based on updated IPC Acute Food Insecurity and Famine Risk Analyses conducted in November 2022 by 47 technical experts, representing 22 institutions (government, UN, NGO, and IPC GSU-the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Global Support Unit). IPC GSU provided technical support throughout the analysis process.

[1] The second projection period (April-June 2023) of the multi-partner IPC analysis overlaps with FEWS NET’s standardized projection period of February-May. As such, FEWS NET has mapped the highest level outcomes expected during the February-May 2023 period, inclusive of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in Bay Region and Mogadishu in April and May.

For more information on the analysis, including assumptions for the April-June 2023 outcome projections, please click the download button at the top of the page for the full report.