Key Message Update

Improved Meher rains in June 2019 may lead to average 2019 Meher harvests

Juillet 2019

Juillet - Septembre 2019

Map of Projected food security outcomes, June to September 2019: Minimal (IPC Phase 1) in most of the west of Ethiopia; Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in parts of Afar, Tigray, Oromia, SNNPR, and Somali; Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in parts of Somali, Oromia, Afar, Tigray, Amhara, Dire Dawa, and SNNPR

Octobre 2019 - Janvier 2020

Map of Projected food security outcomes, October 2017 to January 2020: Minimal (IPC Phase 1) in most of the west of Ethiopia; Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in parts of Afar, Tigray, Oromia, SNNPR, and Somali; Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in parts of Somali, Oromia, Afar, Tigray, Amhara, Dire Dawa, and SNNPR

IPC v3.0 Phase d'Insécurité Alimentaire Aiguë

1: Minimale
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Urgence
5: Famine
Serait probablement pire, au moins une phase, sans l'assistance humanitaire en cours ou programmée
La manière de classification que FEWS NET utilise est compatible avec l’IPC. Une analyse qui est compatible avec l’IPC suit les principaux protocoles de l’IPC mais ne reflète pas nécessairement le consensus des partenaires nationaux en matière de sécurité alimentaire.

IPC v3.0 Phase d'Insécurité Alimentaire Aiguë

1: Minimale
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Urgence
5: Famine
Serait probablement pire, au moins une phase, sans l'assistance humanitaire en cours ou programmée
La manière de classification que FEWS NET utilise est compatible avec l’IPC. Une analyse qui est compatible avec l’IPC suit les principaux protocoles de l’IPC mais ne reflète pas nécessairement le consensus des partenaires nationaux en matière de sécurité alimentaire.

IPC v3.0 Phase d'Insécurité Alimentaire Aiguë

1: Minimale
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pire
Serait probablement pire, au moins une phase, sans
l'assistance humanitaire en cours ou programmée
La manière de classification que FEWS NET utilise est compatible avec l’IPC. Une analyse qui est compatible avec l’IPC suit les principaux protocoles de l’IPC mais ne reflète pas nécessairement le consensus des partenaires nationaux en matière de sécurité alimentaire.
Pour les pays suivis à distance par FEWS NET, un contour coloré est utilisé pour représenter la classification de l’IPC la plus élevée dans les zones de préoccupation.

IPC v3.0 Phase d'Insécurité Alimentaire Aiguë

Pays de présence:
1: Minimale
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Urgence
5: Famine
Pays suivis à distance:
1: Minimale
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pire
Serait probablement pire, au moins une phase, sans
l'assistance humanitaire en cours ou programmée
Pour les pays suivis à distance par FEWS NET, un contour coloré est utilisé pour représenter la classification de l’IPC la plus élevée dans les zones de préoccupation.

Messages clés

  • Kiremt rainfall from June to September 2019 had an overall timely start, and so far, has had average distribution and total rainfall, except in localized areas in the East and North East   of the country. Farmers are therefore carrying out land preparations and planting of Meher crops. Total Meher production is likely to be average despite poor Belg rains in late April and early May in the east, south, and north of the country that affected the planting of long-cycle crops. Most Belg crops are atypically at vegetative, flowering or seed setting stages except in localized areas where rainfed Belg green harvests have started.  In southern Ethiopia, root vegetables, vegetable, and cabbage harvests are supplementing food needs for poorer household in addition to humanitarian assistance.  

  • Supplies of staple foods in local markets across the country remain unseasonably low as the Belg harvest is late to begin. Demand for staple foods has substantially increased as own production no longer covers poor households’ food needs and poor households are now reliant on markets. As a result, food prices have continued to steady increase since February 2019. The wholesale price of maize in Hosanna market in May 2019 was about 865 Birr/100kg, which is 4.2 percent higher than in April 2019, 9.5 percent higher than in May 2018 and 36.3 percent higher than the five-year average. In Woldia market inNortheasternAmhara, sorghum prices in June 2019 were about 2365 ETB/100kg, which is 128 percent higher than May 2018 and 102 percent higher than the five-year average.

  • The IDP returnee households in Gedeo Zone of SNNPR Region continue to face food shortage as they have already missed three agricultural seasons and have no own production to meet their food needs. As a result, they are dependent on humanitarian assistance until they can harvest their first own agricultural production that is expected in beginning in November and December 2019. As a result, nutritional status will remain a concern.

  • Cholera/AWD continues to affect people across Oromia, Amhara, Tigray, Somali and Afar Regions and Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa towns. So far more than 871 peoplehave been infected - at least 292 people in Oromia region, 202 in Amhara region, 19 in Tigray region, 131 Afar region, 33 in Somali region, and at least 125 in Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa. This has resulted in deteriorating nutritional status of children, and pregnant and lactating woman in drought affected regions, and negatively peoples’ movements and peoples’ abilities to perform agricultural labor.

  • In pastoral areas livestock and local cereal prices are increasing at a similar rate, but unfortunately the average goat to maize terms of trade (ToT) remains unfavorable for pastoralists. This is driven by both below-average cereal availability and increasing cereal prices. In Dhegahbour market of the Somali region, the sale of an average local goat bought 100 kgs of maize in June 2019, which is less than in June 2018 when it could buy 130 kgs, but better than the five-year average when it could buy 82 kg. In Kebridehar market in Korahe zone, the sale of an average local goat bought 100 kgs of white maize in June 2019, which is less than in June 2018 when it could buy 130 kgs and also less than the five-year average when it could buy 105 kg.

About FEWS NET

Le Réseau des systèmes d’alerte précoce contre la famine est l’un des principaux prestataires d’alertes précoces et d’analyses de l’insécurité alimentaire. Constitué par l’USAID en 1985 pour aider les décideurs à planifier pour les crises humanitaires, FEWS NET fournit des analyses factuelles  concernant quelque 35 pays. Les membres des équipes de mise en œuvre incluent la NASA, la NOAA, le département américain de l ‘Agriculture (USDA) et le gouvernement des États-Unis (USGS), de même que Chemonics International Inc. et Kimetrica. Vous trouverez d’autres informations sur notre travail.

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