Perspectives sur la sécurité alimentaire

Deterioration of conditions in Haiti contrasts seasonal improvements in Central America

Novembre 2021

Octobre 2021 - Janvier 2022

Février - Mai 2022

IPC v3.0 Phase d'Insécurité Alimentaire Aiguë

Pays de présence:
1: Minimale
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Urgence
5: Famine
Pays suivis à distance:
1: Minimale
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pire
Serait probablement pire, au moins une phase, sans
l'assistance humanitaire en cours ou programmée
La manière de classification que FEWS NET utilise est compatible avec l’IPC. Une analyse qui est compatible avec l’IPC suit les principaux protocoles de l’IPC mais ne reflète pas nécessairement le consensus des partenaires nationaux en matière de sécurité alimentaire.
Pour les pays suivis à distance par FEWS NET, un contour coloré est utilisé pour représenter la classification de l’IPC la plus élevée dans les zones de préoccupation.

IPC v3.0 Phase d'Insécurité Alimentaire Aiguë

1: Minimale
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Urgence
5: Famine
Serait probablement pire, au moins une phase, sans l'assistance humanitaire en cours ou programmée
La manière de classification que FEWS NET utilise est compatible avec l’IPC. Une analyse qui est compatible avec l’IPC suit les principaux protocoles de l’IPC mais ne reflète pas nécessairement le consensus des partenaires nationaux en matière de sécurité alimentaire.

IPC v3.0 Phase d'Insécurité Alimentaire Aiguë

1: Minimale
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pire
Serait probablement pire, au moins une phase, sans
l'assistance humanitaire en cours ou programmée
La manière de classification que FEWS NET utilise est compatible avec l’IPC. Une analyse qui est compatible avec l’IPC suit les principaux protocoles de l’IPC mais ne reflète pas nécessairement le consensus des partenaires nationaux en matière de sécurité alimentaire.
Pour les pays suivis à distance par FEWS NET, un contour coloré est utilisé pour représenter la classification de l’IPC la plus élevée dans les zones de préoccupation.

IPC v3.0 Phase d'Insécurité Alimentaire Aiguë

Pays de présence:
1: Minimale
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Urgence
5: Famine
Pays suivis à distance:
1: Minimale
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pire
Serait probablement pire, au moins une phase, sans
l'assistance humanitaire en cours ou programmée
La manière de classification que FEWS NET utilise est compatible avec l’IPC. Une analyse qui est compatible avec l’IPC suit les principaux protocoles de l’IPC mais ne reflète pas nécessairement le consensus des partenaires nationaux en matière de sécurité alimentaire.
Pour les pays suivis à distance par FEWS NET, un contour coloré est utilisé pour représenter la classification de l’IPC la plus élevée dans les zones de préoccupation.

Messages clés

  • In Haiti, sociopolitical instability, erratic rainfall, and high prices are driving Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in many parts of the country. The depreciation of the gourde against the dollar, high international food prices, and a heavy reliance on imported goods is negatively impacting household purchasing power while households attempt to recover from the August earthquake and tropical depression Grace. In some areas such as Camp Perrin, Maniche, and Pestel, food assistance will enable poor households to meet their food needs therefore they will be Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!).

  • In and around Port-au-Prince, criminal activity and kidnappings for ransom as well as fuel shortages have paralyzed economic activity and disrupted transportation, warehouses, businesses, and schools. Meanwhile, in rural areas, the fall crop year is anticipated to be below average due to erratic rainfall and the residual effects of the twin natural disasters on agricultural production.

  • In Central America, broad economic recovery and seasonal improvements in food availability and access across the region are improving outcomes to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) for most poor households. However, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will prevail in the Guatemalan and Honduran Dry Corridor, eastern Honduras, the Guatemalan Altiplano, and areas impacted by hurricanes Eta and Iota due to smallholder farmer’s primera crop losses, reduced coffee-related income, and an inability to recover livelihoods following multiple shocks in recent years.

  • During this outlook period, poor rural households are likely to increase the proportion of income that will be allocated to non-food needs due to increased prices for fuel, utilities, and transportation; accumulated debts from the atypically long 2021 lean season; and the recovery of livelihoods in agriculture, tourism, and informal sectors. Rising fuel and transportation costs are likely to reduce earning potential and influence higher food prices, resulting in reduced household purchasing power and an early onset of the 2022 lean season for some households.

  • Markets are likely to remain well supplied and operating normally due to sufficient domestic production and regional imports. Average cumulative rainfall forecasts and resulting average national level postrera and postrera tardía/apante harvests are expected to influence a seasonal reduction in staple food prices. Nevertheless, below-average rainfall in northeastern Honduras is likely to cause crop losses and a below-average postrera harvest for smallholder farmers.

     

OUTLOOK BY COUNTRY

Haiti

  • The security situation has deteriorated since early September, with criminal activities and kidnappings for ransom having increased. This, coupled with the persistent scarcity of fuel, has prompted strikes resulting in economic paralysis, mainly in the major cities, leading to the disruption of public transportation, and of the functioning of warehouses, businesses, and schools.
  • The irregular spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall, and the residual effects of the earthquake and Tropical Depression Grace on agricultural production in the Sud, Grand’Anse, Nippes and Sud-Est departments, characterized by the loss of productive assets such as agricultural inputs, are having an adverse effect on the fall agricultural season.
  • The gourde/dollar exchange rate continues to depreciate, negatively impacting household purchasing power. Imported food prices, which correlate strongly with the informal market exchange rate, remain significantly above average.
  • The areas affected by the earthquake (Sud, Nippes, Grand’Anse) and Tropical Depression Grace (Sud-Est), those where harvests will be below average (Nord-Ouest, Nord-Est, Haut-Plateau, Haut-Artibonite, Ouest), and Port-au-Prince, which is disrupted by gang activity, will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), with households still forced to adopt crisis coping strategies (consumption of early crops or seeds, sale of wood, reduction in the quality and/or quantity of meals) to maintain their food consumption. In some areas, such as Camp-Perrin, Maniche, and Pestel, food assistance will enable poor households to cover their food needs, resulting in Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes until February.

For more information, see the Haiti Food Security Outlook for October 2021 to May 2022.

Guatemala

  • Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected throughout the outlook period in urban area thanks to the economy’s gradual recovery. Staple grain harvests and peak demand for agricultural labor will allow poor rural households to improve their food access and availability. However, high food and transport costs and debt repayments will limit purchasing power and improvements to the quality of their diet, thus these households will experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through January 2022.
  • In areas of the Dry Corridor and the Altiplano, as well as in the areas most affected by hurricanes Eta and Iota, poorer households will be classified as in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) throughout the outlook period, as they have fewer resources to protect their livelihoods following multiple shocks in recent years. From February onward, as income decreases, the number of households in these areas experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will increase and the lean season will begin prematurely.
  • Throughout the period covered by this outlook, markets will remain supplied with domestic grains and those imported from Mexico. The primera, postrera and postrera tardía staple grain harvests will be within average ranges, which will support a seasonal reduction in the price of maize and beans. However, due to external factors, the prices of food, gas, and public and freight transportation continue to be above the five-year average and above last year's prices and continue to negatively affect household purchasing power. 
  • October marks the beginning of the harvest of the main cash crops (coffee, sugar, cardamom), which is expected to be within average ranges, and with it the season when demand for agricultural labor is highest. However, high transportation costs could reduce the number of trips and therefore number of days worked for casual laborers.  The economic upturn under way in urban areas is improving job recovery.

For more information, see the Guatemala Food Security Outlook for October 2021 to May 2022.

Remote Monitoring Countries[1]

El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua

  • Seasonal improvements in food availability and access across the region are improving outcomes to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) for most poor households. However, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will prevail in Honduras’ Dry Corridor and east due to smallholder farmer’s primera crop losses and reduced coffee-related income.
  • For poor rural households, an increasing proportion of income will be allocated to non-food needs as prices for fuel, utilities, and transportation increase, as well as to accumulated debts from the atypically long lean season and the recovery of livelihoods in agriculture, tourism, and informal sectors following COVID-19 and storm-related deterioration. Furthermore, rising fuel and transportation costs are likely to influence higher food prices and result in reduced household purchasing power.
  • Economic activity in El Salvador and Honduras is likely to slowly recover as formal and informal employment opportunities, especially in tourism, begin to come back and remittances continue to fill gaps in income for middle and better-off households. Meanwhile, political uncertainty and insecurity are disincentivizing existing and future investment in Nicaragua, slowing the pace of recovery.
  • Climate forecasts anticipate average cumulative rainfall throughout most of the region. National postrera and early 2022 postrera tardía/apante harvests are expected to be near average as a result; however, below-average rainfall in northeastern Honduras is likely to cause crop losses and a below-average postrera harvest for smallholder farmers.

For more information, see the El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua Remote Monitoring Update for October 2021 to May 2022

 

[1] With remote monitoring, an analyst typically works from a nearby regional office, relying on a network of partners for data. Compared to previous series of countries in which FEWS NET has a local office, reports on remote monitoring countries may offer less detail.

EVENTS THAT MIGHT CHANGE THE OUTLOOK

Table 1. Possible events over the next eight months that could change the most-likely scenario

Areas Event Impact on food security outcomes

Regional

Hurricanes According to the compilation by the Barcelona Supercomputing Center and Colorado State University Seasonal Hurricane Predictions, an above-average hurricane season is forecast through November 2021. Depending on the trajectory and magnitude of a storms, the direct or indirect impacts could change crop production prospects and negatively affect other food and income sources. Crop and other livelihood losses would likely increase the population in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
Regional A tropical depression or a period of heavy rainfall in the first half of the outlook This would cause flooding, soil erosion, landslides, and mudslides and consequently crop losses and damage to transportation routes. This would negatively affect food availability and access to employment and markets, increasing the areas and population in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
Regional Additional increases in fuel and transportation prices  Significant price increases for fuel and transportation would cause even higher prices of food, fertilizers, and raw materials, further reducing food access for the poorest households, hindering the economic recovery country wide, and likely increasing the population in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
Guatemala and Haiti The extension or tightening of COVID-19-related restrictions This would negatively affect the recovery of income for households working in the informal economy and formal employees in non-essential sectors, placing some households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
Haiti Easing of socio-political unrest A reduction in violence would lead to the functioning of the economy and markets. This would lead to an increase in food availability and access, enabling more households to adopt fewer negative coping strategies. Thus, fewer areas and households could be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
Haiti A drought episode Water shortages could affect seasonal crops, cause a considerable reduction in fodder and water available for livestock, and delay the start of the 2022 spring growing season. This would also damage the livelihoods of poorer households and reduce demand for agricultural labor.
Haiti Loss of all pigs at the national level The possibility of a systematic slaughter of pigs, as happened in 1978, is likely to have adverse effects not only on farmers’ and sellers’ incomes, but also on other sectors of the economy such as agriculture, trade, and education. In addition, a 100 percent decline in pig sales due to ASF-related deaths would result in a greater variation in calories consumed per household. This would represent a loss of 6 percent of kilocalories among very poor households in the Western Banana Plains of Arcahaie livelihood zone (HT05), for example.

 

A Propos de l’Élaboration de Scenarios

Afin d’estimer les résultats de la sécurité alimentaire pour les prochains six mois, FEWS NET développe les suppositions de base concernant les événements possible, leurs effets, et les réponses probables des divers acteurs. FEWS NET fait ses analyses basées sur ces suppositions dans le contexte des conditions actuelles et les moyens d’existence locaux pour développer des scénarios estimant les résultats de la sécurité alimentaire. D’habitude, FEWS NET prévient du scénario le plus probable. Pour en savoir plus, cliquez ici.

About FEWS NET

Le Réseau des systèmes d’alerte précoce contre la famine est l’un des principaux prestataires d’alertes précoces et d’analyses de l’insécurité alimentaire. Constitué par l’USAID en 1985 pour aider les décideurs à planifier pour les crises humanitaires, FEWS NET fournit des analyses factuelles  concernant quelque 35 pays. Les membres des équipes de mise en œuvre incluent la NASA, la NOAA, le département américain de l ‘Agriculture (USDA) et le gouvernement des États-Unis (USGS), de même que Chemonics International Inc. et Kimetrica. Vous trouverez d’autres informations sur notre travail.

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