Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Key Messages

• In Ukraine:

  Ukraine’s economy remains badly damaged by the war, with GDP shrinking by 30 percent in 2022. Though the economy recovered slightly between April and September following the stabilization of supply chains and business activity, recent Russian attacks on energy infrastructure have halted the trend of economic improvement, driven by impacts on the industrial/manufacturing sector. In contrast, other businesses, services, and the agricultural sector have proven fairly resilient to the power outages. Overall, the availability of income-earning opportunities is generally better than in the period immediately following the invasion, though still notably lower than pre-war levels. Significant levels of social support and humanitarian assistance from Ukrainian and international sources are lifelines for the poorest and most vulnerable households, including a large portion of the estimated 5.4 million people currently displaced within Ukraine.

• Food and fuel prices in Ukraine have declined since mid-2022 but remain significantly elevated. Prices are highest in eastern and southern conflict-affected areas. This is placing significant strain on the ability of poor households to meet their essential food and non-food needs, particularly during the ongoing winter when fuel requirements are high. Poor households that have lost key income sources – such as farmers, factory workers, and irregular wage-earners – who pay rent, and/or who live in conflict-affected areas with the greatest price increases, are likely facing Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes if they receive in-kind or cash assistance or Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in the absence of assistance. Occupied, conflict-affected areas in the south and east are the areas of highest concern.

• Below-normal income levels and high prices are expected to continue to strain household access to food in 2023. While inflation is expected to ease from current peak levels, it is projected to remain high at an average 18.7 percent. The start of the spring planting season around March will lead to a seasonal increase in income, but this will be limited by the slow pace of exports. Overall, the number of people in immediate need of humanitarian assistance to prevent food consumption gaps and damage to livelihoods is expected to remain within the range of 1-2.49 million people (3-7 percent of those in the country), though needs will decline in the spring as income-earning improves and fuel expenditure needs decrease. Most of the population in need will continue to be located in conflict-affected areas, due to disruptions and damage to income-earning, supply chains, and essential infrastructure, including water and heat.

• Globally:

  The effects of the war in Ukraine drove up already high global energy and agricultural commodity prices. Since peaking in March 2022, global food prices have returned to pre-invasion levels but remain well above 2021 and 2020, a trend that is expected to persist in the coming year. Reductions in the affordability of basic food and essential non-food needs will contribute to high levels of acute food insecurity in 2023, with nearly 130 million people in need of humanitarian assistance across FEWS NET’s reporting countries. The impacts of the war in Ukraine on food availability and access coincide with the impacts of conflict and drought in many countries, including in the Horn of Africa, where unprecedented drought will persist for a third year.

• Funding for the humanitarian response to high global assistance needs remains inadequate, aggravated by needs in Ukraine, and the world faces prospects for an impending global recession alongside frequent extreme weather events and water crises due to the impacts of climate change. In this context, the ongoing spiral of eroding livelihoods and resilience is expected to continue, with pastoralist livelihoods particularly threatened. It is essential that donor countries urgently direct efforts toward addressing the root causes of food insecurity – particularly conflict and climate change – and work creatively to respond to acute needs while investing in local livelihoods and economies.