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Ukraine Targeted Analysis

  • Targeted Analysis
  • Ukraine
  • April 2022
Ukraine Targeted Analysis

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • In Ukraine:

      As of April 1, over 11 million people have been displaced by conflict in Ukraine and an estimated 100 billion USD worth of infrastructure has been destroyed. Supply chains and trade have been significantly disrupted, leading to a dramatic decline in exports of agricultural commodities and disruptions to imports of essential non-food commodities, such as fuel and seeds. In the east, sieges of population centers by forces of the Russian Federation are leaving many without electricity, heat, food, and/or water. Though the Ukrainian government has enacted policies to ease financial burdens on citizens, many Ukrainians have lost their normal income sources due to displacement, disruptions to economic and business activity in conflict-affected areas, destruction of property, withdrawal of major companies, and supply chain disruptions.

    • Though many better-off displaced households are likely to have resources in electronic bank accounts, poor displaced households, separated from assets and income-earning, are likely to be facing Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!)1 outcomes when supported by assistance or Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in the absence of assistance. Among households who remain in their home areas, some poor households who were dependent on lower-wage jobs—including daily wage laborers and factory workers—are likely Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) or in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) given loss of income-earning opportunities and already reduced coping capacity due to COVID-19 impacts and high food prices. The greatest concern for food insecurity exists for households in urban areas under siege—including Mariupol and Chernihiv—where many households across wealth groups are likely facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes amid shortages of food, water, and medicine.

      1 The Integrated Phase Classification (IPC) Acute Food Insecurity scale is a five-phase scale of increasing severity. The scale ranges from None/Minimal (IPC Phase 1) to Catastrophe/Famine (IPC Phase 5). At Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or higher levels, urgent humanitarian food assistance is required to protect lives and livelihoods. At Emergency (IPC Phase 4), high levels of acute malnutrition and hunger-related mortality are evident. When a household is in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), they have an extreme lack of food and/or other basic needs even after employing all available coping. Famine (IPC Phase 5) is an area-level classification, declared when at least 20 percent of the population is in Catastrophe; the prevalence of acute malnutrition is above 30 percent if measured using weight-for-height; and the Crude Death Rate greater than 2/10,000/day. An (!) indicates that the classification would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance. To learn more about the IPC, visit the IPC page on FEWS NET’s website.

    • As spring planting commences in March/April, agricultural livelihoods in conflict-affected areas are being disrupted by the direct impacts of active conflict, including population displacement, inability to access fields, damage to farming equipment, and supply chain disruptions which are preventing some farmers from accessing needed inputs like seeds and fuel. According to government estimates published on March 25, 5.99 million hectares are expected to be planted under spring crops, 22 percent less than last year. This is among the most optimistic estimates published so far. Though significant uncertainty exists, it is possible that agricultural production in Ukraine—both winter and spring crops—could decline by as much as 25-50 percent or more, driven by reduced area planted in the spring season, crop losses due to damage, and reduced yields due to shortages of fertilizer and fuel. The extent of crop damage is highly uncertain and depends on the spread, intensity, and duration of the conflict through the harvest period starting around July.

    • Though significant uncertainty exists, an estimated 2.5-4.99 million people in Ukraine (around 5 to 10 percent of the national population) will likely need humanitarian assistance to prevent food consumption gaps and protect livelihoods in the near term. This compares with an estimated 0.5-1.0 million people who likely required humanitarian assistance in 2021. However, humanitarian access is significantly challenged and attempts to establish humanitarian corridors have largely failed. An end to the conflict is urgently needed to protect the population.

    • Globally:

      Immediately following the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24—and increasingly as the private sector withdrew from Ukraine and broke ties with Russia and Belarus in response to sanctions and insecurity—global markets responded to concern about future supplies of energy, fertilizer, key food commodities, and other commodities (such as metals), driven by the importance of Ukraine, Russia and Belarus as global suppliers. Prior to the invasion, global prices of energy, fertilizers, and key food commodities, including staple grains and oil seeds, were already significantly elevated and have increased rapidly following the invasion. Prices of these commodities are expected to remain high or to continue rising throughout 2022, and shortages of some commodities are possible in countries highly dependent on imports, with low-income countries the most vulnerable.

    • Higher import prices will translate into higher retail food prices in import-dependent countries, with food security hardest hit in low-income, net food-importing countries due to low financial capacity to respond through policy measures including food subsidies to support poorer households. In these countries and others, rising prices of food and essential non-food commodities including fuel will further constrain the resources of poor households, with poor urban households among the worst affected due to high market dependence.

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