Seasonally high fuel expenditure needs strain poor households in February

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Despite little change in the front lines in the second year of the war,¹analysis by the Armed Conflict Location and Events Data Project (ACLED) indicates that fighting intensified overall in the eastern and southern frontline areas, especially in the Donetsk and Zaporizhia regions. Given the stability in the frontlines, the number of conflict-related civilian deaths declined significantly in the second year of the conflict, even in regions where conflict intensified. However, households in frontline areas continued to face both sustained and intermittent challenges to livelihoods, food access (linked to disruptions to supply chains and market access), and the provision of basic essential services such as healthcare, clean water, and electricity. According to REACH monitoring, frontline settlements in Donetsk and Kharkiv are among the most vulnerable to disruptions to food access. Meanwhile, ACLED reports that Kherson city recorded the highest number of attacks on healthcare facilities in the second year of the conflict, followed by the Kharkiv region. More recently, UN OHCHR reports a notable relative increase in the number of civilian casualties (injuries and deaths) in December 2023 and January 2024 based on data from the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, attributed to an increase in Russian aerial strikes (missiles and loitering munitions) that have impacted targets dispersed across the country.
Across Ukraine, households face higher heating expenditure requirements during the cold winter months from around November/December to February/March. Among poor households, this can force trade-offs that negatively impact the quality and quantity of food consumed. Remote sensing data indicate that, on average, temperatures have been even colder than normal (though with significant volatility) in December 2023 and January 2024 across large parts of Ukraine. Most Ukrainians are expected to be meeting their essential needs given recovery in income-earning as well as government- and humanitarian-provided assistance. However, populations in frontline areas – especially those who have been displaced – remain more vulnerable to cold winter temperatures due to displacement, damage to homes, and disruptions to fuel supply chains and electricity provision. In a January 2024 assessment conducted by the IOM, a quarter of key informants in frontline areas reported that populations relied on humanitarian aid for solid fuel (e.g. firewood, coal, briquettes, pellets) despite declining prices of most solid fuels since August 2023.
Ukraine continued to export grain at near pre-invasion levels in January 2024, according to data reported by the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine. Recovery in exports is providing important support to farmers and Ukraine’s agriculture-dependent economy. According to a statement made by the Ukrainian prime minister in late February 2024, more than 90 percent of Ukrainian businesses had also resumed pre-war operation and production levels. Recovery of all major economic sectors has facilitated a 3.5 percent increase in the national GDP from January 2023 to January 2024. This has been largely facilitated by significant foreign financial support to the Ukrainian budget.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Ukraine Key Message Update February 2024: Seasonally high fuel expenditure needs strain poor households in February, 2024.

The second year of the war is defined by ACLED as February 24, 2023, to February 16, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.