Ukrainian exports again reach pre-invasion levels in December 2023

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Ukrainian exports of agricultural products have increased substantially in recent months and in December 2023 reached near pre-invasion levels for the second time. According to data from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine (MoAPF), month-to-month export levels have been increasing steadily since September 2023 and in December totaled more than 7 million tons. This has been driven by steadily increasing exports via Ukrainian ports facilitated by the successful functioning of the humanitarian shipping corridor. In December, exports via ports contributed 86 percent of the more than 7 million tons of total exports of agricultural commodities. Maize and wheat represented 43 percent and 26 percent, respectively, of the total exports of agricultural commodities in December. Rising export levels are providing important support to the Ukrainian economy and connecting more farmers with profitable export markets.
The main harvest season had concluded by December in all regions of the country, according to the MoAPF. In early December, the MoAPF increased forecasts for grain and oilseed production to 81.3 million tons. Farmers also harvested nearly 29 million tons of vegetables and nearly 12 million tons of sweet root crops. However, according to analysis conducted by NASA Harvest, winter wheat crop yields are more than 20 percent lower in Russian-occupied areas compared to unoccupied areas, on average. Looking forward, available forecasts indicate that rainfall will likely be average to above average in the April/May spring planting period, which is also a key period for the growth of winter crops. This is expected to facilitate normal agricultural production activities.
According to REACH monitoring of population settlements near front lines of the conflict, settlements closest to the front line continue to face higher levels of vulnerability across assessed sectors.¹ The highest levels of vulnerability were recorded in settlements of Kharkivska oblast that were retaken by the Ukrainian government in late 2022. Most assessed settlements (62 percent) reported low levels of vulnerability in the Food Security and Livelihoods category. The areas with more severe scores were located within 30 km of the front lines in Donestska and Kharkivska oblasts, where 10-24 percent of the population reported that they could not access both food and markets (in the 14 days prior to data collection). The most commonly report reason for this was a lack of functional stores and markets. This underscores ongoing concern for more severe acute food insecurity outcomes in frontline areas due to the direct impacts of active conflict on normal population movement, market functioning, and humanitarian access.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Ukraine Key Message Update December 2023: Ukrainian exports again reach pre-invasion levels in December 2023, 2023.

Vulnerability is defined by a Settlement Vulnerability Index (SVI) developed by REACH. The index is calculated by first ranking the severity of vulnerability (using a scale ranging from 1 to 5) across a selection of indicators for each of six sectors (Food Security and Livelihoods; Shelter and Non-Food Items; Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene; Healthcare; Protection; and Education) based on information from key informant interviews. Sectoral scores are calculated by taking the simple average of the scores assigned to the relevant indicators. An overall vulnerability score (the SVI) is then calculated by taking the simple average of all six sectoral scores. Further methodological details are reported by REACH. REACH acknowledges that the SVI should be viewed as an approximate indicator of the overall humanitarian situation; it is based on key informant information and is therefore subject to typical sources of bias. It should further be noted that the SVI does not provide insight into household-level variability within settlements.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.