Ukraine
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- As of August 2024, Russia occupies 109,700 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, down from 163,000 square kilometers at the peak of its invasion in 2022, following significant Ukrainian counter offensives in Kherson (July-November 2022) and Kharkiv oblasts (September-October 2022). Since then, frontlines have remained largely stable. However, in August, intense fighting continued in Donetsk oblast, where Russian forces have made slow gains, and in Kharkiv oblast, where Ukrainian forces have largely contained a recent Russian incursion aimed to reach the city of Kharkiv. Additionally, on August 6, Ukrainian forces launched an incursion into Russia’s Kursk oblast and seized 1,000 square kilometers. Meanwhile, Russian airstrikes on Ukrainian civilian and military targets persist, with a large-scale drone and missile strike on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure on August 26. In general, Ukrainian forces have maintained the capability to intercept and shoot down the majority of Russian drones and missiles following continued deliveries of western air defense systems. Nonetheless, many strikes still evade interception and regularly kill and injure civilians, limit humanitarian access, and impact infrastructure (including hospitals, transit centers, residences, and electrical power supply).
- In August, hostilities in Donetsk and Sumy oblasts continued to escalate, driving a surge of new displacement and mandatory evacuations. According to OCHA, 3,400 civilians were evacuated from Donetsk from August 7 to 29. In Sumy oblast, more than 600 people were evacuated from August 15 to 28. Mandatory evacuations were ongoing in many towns and villages as of the end of August. Humanitarian organizations have mobilized to provide multisectoral support to affected people. For instance, humanitarian actors are currently providing hot meals and food supplies – expected to be generally sufficient to meet needs given current levels of new displacements – and multi-purpose cash assistance at transit centers, with Cash Working Group partners registering more than 2,200 people for cash assistance from August 7 to 26. While humanitarian partners continue to reach frontline communities affected by hostilities, both humanitarian access and operations – as well as the provision of essential services such as electricity and financial services – are deteriorating in affected areas, such as in Pokrovsk town of Donetsk where an estimated 38,000 residents remained as of August 31.
- The August 26 attack on energy infrastructure was reportedly one of the biggest of the war. The extent of damage is still being assessed as of the end of August. In Sumy, around 250,000 people were left without electricity, a situation exacerbated by the summer heat. Work has been ongoing to repair prior damage to energy-generating infrastructure caused by previous strikes, but these new attacks – which largely targeted distribution infrastructure – pose a setback to expected improvements in the power supply. Emergency outages are being implemented countrywide as of the end of August, and planned power outages during winter – when temperatures are expected to drop below freezing – are inevitable. While hospitals, critical infrastructure, and many businesses now have greater generator capacity compared to 2022, concern exists for impacts on elderly people who will struggle to heat their homes. In response to the anticipated increase in winter needs, a 492 million USD appeal was recently launched to support approximately 1.8 million people, despite the 2024 humanitarian appeal being only 30 percent funded.
- According to USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), a heat wave and lack of precipitation in July in eastern and southern regions negatively impacted corn and soybean development, severely degrading potential yields. USDA has revised August production estimates for corn in the 2024/25 marketing year (July 2024 to June 2025) downward by 2 percent relative to last month’s estimates, for an estimated 16 percent decline relative to last year’s levels. Other crops such as grapes have also been impacted. Additionally, while average precipitation is most likely during the planting and cultivation period for winter wheat and rye from August to mid-October, the high temperatures and dry conditions in August have left soils dry, posing challenges for winter planting.
- Ukrainian grain exports continue to be near pre-war levels. In the nearly two months since the beginning of the 2024/25 marketing year in July 2024, Ukrainian grain exports have totaled 6.9 million tons as of August 31, up 53 percent from the 4.5 million tons exported in the same period of the previous year following disruptions to exports due to Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative in July 2023. In August, the government also finalized a system of minimum export prices for key grain and oilseed shipments, with the aim of preventing traders from exporting goods at artificially low prices to evade returns of foreign currency to Ukraine, after purchasing commodities from farmers in cash. It is unclear when the new rules will take effect. The Ukrainian Grain Association – a traders’ union – has voiced concerns about potential impacts, including reduced grain exports linked to the lower global competitiveness of Ukrainian grain and increased difficulty for farmers seeking to procure loans due to less predictable export prices. However, USDA FAS assesses that export volumes of legitimate companies will not be affected; rather, traders who have previously circumvented these requirements stand to lose the most from the new rules. While monitoring is required, the market is largely expected to adapt.
Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Ukraine Key Message Update August 2024: Russia strikes power grid again, while fighting escalates in Donetsk and Sumy, 2024.
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