Ukraine

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Ukraine
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Key Message Update October 2024 Winter begins in Ukraine as Russian troops advance along the eastern front Download the report
  • In October, Russian troops advanced across the Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhia oblasts, making territorial gains and establishing control over dozens of villages, including several Ukrainian strongholds. Across Ukraine, the Human Rights Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (HRMMU) verified over 1,200 civilian injuries and 200 civilian deaths in September, while ACLED reported 184 civilian deaths in October. In targeting Ukrainian port infrastructure, Russia hit the ports in Odesa City and Izmail on October 6 and 9, respectively, damaging several internationally-flagged civilian ships. NATO and the Pentagon confirmed that North Korean troops have been deployed to Kursk oblast in Russia – estimates range between 8,000 and 12,000. However, it is highly unlikely that this scale of deployment will alter the trajectory of the current conflict in terms of developments along the front lines. 
  • Continued attacks on energy infrastructure remain a concern as winter begins. Ukraine has lost over 50 percent of its generating capacity, and scheduled blackouts have been ongoing since the spring. As temperatures drop below freezing over the winter, many households will likely face hours-long power outages. The areas of Kharkiv, Bohodukhiv, and Chuhuiv in Kharkiv Oblast, along with Sumskyi in Sumska Oblast, face the greatest risks during the winter. This is primarily due to harsher winter conditions, a high concentration of vulnerable populations such as internally displaced persons and the elderly, and conflict-related damage to housing that was already poorly insulated. A recent agreement with the European Union is expected to boost electricity import capacity into Ukraine and Moldova more than five-fold from December through at least March 2025. However, conflict-related damage to distribution and transmission infrastructure continues to impact power supplies, and such imports are unlikely to meet demand fully as energy use peaks during the winter.
  • As of October, more than 3.5 million Ukrainians remain internally displaced by the war. WFP continues to provide much-needed support to local populations, particularly those living in frontline regions in eastern Ukraine and evacuees. An estimated 1.5 million people received humanitarian assistance during October, with 848,000 receiving in-kind food assistance and 608,000 receiving cash-based assistance. As in past months, recipients in areas where humanitarian access conditions remain volatile received double 30-day rations, this time in Donetsk. In anticipation of heightened needs during winter, the scale of cash-based assistance expanded to target 50,000 new beneficiaries in regions most affected by the ongoing conflict, including those not eligible for government pensions, those with disabilities, and those who receive less than 3,250 UAH in social benefits. 
  • Ukraine’s economy has been heavily impacted by the war but is still demonstrating remarkable resilience. GDP rose 4.2 percent year-on-year, which – while comparable to pre-war growth rates – follows an estimated 29 percent economic contraction that occurred in 2022 due to the impacts of the war. Agricultural exports remain crucial to the country’s economic performance. In October, over 6 million tons of grains, oilseeds, and related products were exported, representing a 39 percent increase from October 2023, when 4.33 million tons were exported. Similarly, year-to-date (January-September) agricultural export volumes are up 36.2 percent compared to the same period in 2023. During the three years prior to the war, monthly exports averaged 5.33 million tons. Despite recent attacks on port infrastructure, the vast majority (approximately 89 percent) of exports continue to be exported via Ukraine’s ports.
  • The 2023/24 sunflower, rice, and corn harvests are ongoing, and as of October 25th, farmers in unoccupied areas of Ukraine have harvested 63.7 million tons of grains and oilseeds.1 The total harvest is expected to be lower than initially forecasted due to unusually hot and dry conditions during the growing season. By comparison, the total estimated harvest in 2022/23 was 82 million tons in unoccupied areas, while the bumper harvest in 2021/2022 in both unoccupied and Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine was over 100 million tons. Planting activities for winter barley, wheat, and rapeseed crops are also wrapping up across the country. While winter cropping conditions in western Ukraine are generally favorable, conditions are poor in the east, center, and south, where winter wheat crops are reportedly 2-3 weeks behind in development as the winter dormancy period arrives. If crops are not mature enough before dormancy, they have an increased susceptibility to winter kill, are less competitive with weeds, and are more susceptible to disease and pests, which lower yield potential.
     
     
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