Famine Early Warning Systems Network

In general, compared with the 2006-2015 average, cumulative rainfall totals are normal to above-normal in the eastern half of the country and normal to below-normal in the West, particularly in Dagana, Louga, Kebemer, Foundioune, and Nioro du Rip (Figure 1), which could adversely affect crop yields and production levels. Reported cumulative rainfall levels to date have allowed for good crop growth and development in most farming areas of the country (Figure 2). However, the poor distribution of rainfall in Dagana, Raneyrou, and Kanel departments will adversely affect crop yields and, by extension, farm incomes and the levels of food stocks. 

Despite the reduction in crop yields as a result of the poor spatial distribution of rainfall, cereal production is expected to be up from last season according to government estimates. The Department of Agriculture (DA/SAED) puts peanut production, which is the country’s main cash crop, up by 8.6 percent from 2016 and 36 percent above-average. This increased cereal production is providing above-average food availability in all parts of the country and will give farming households average to above-average incomes.

Pastoral conditions are average to above-average. As of October 10, 2016, there were average to above-average levels of plant biomass production all across the country, raising expectations for average levels of animal production throughout the country, which should provide average incomes for pastoral households. However, the reported pockets of net pasture deficits of up to 30 percent in certain areas, particularly in the Saint Louis, Kolda, and eastern Matam regions, could adversely affect the physical condition of livestock and resulting levels of animal production.

There are adequate supplies of cereal crops on markets across the country. Cereal availability is steadily improving with the shipments to market of freshly harvested crops, along with the stocks of off-season rice crops from riverine areas. In general, household cereal access is in line with the average and improving with food prices stabilizing at levels close to the five-year average. Prices for locally grown cereal crops in all parts of the country are showing no movement from last month. As of the end of September, millet and sorghum prices were four percent below and maize prices were slightly above the five-year average by four percent. The average price of a kilogram of regular broken rice, which is the main cereal consumed by Senegalese households, is at or slightly below the five-year average by approximately three percent.

Most households across the country will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity as of October with the new ongoing harvests and near-average food prices helping to promote average market access. The larger volume of crop production will provide better-than-average food availability in all parts of the country, which will help maintain average household food access between October and next May. Average incomes from the sale of crops and other typical income-generating activities will help give households average to above-average market access, which will keep their food insecurity at Minimal (IPC Phase 1) levels between October 2016 and May 2017.

However, poor households whose livelihoods were degraded by flood damage, particularly in the Fatick, Dakar, Saint Louis, Matam, and Louga areas, will need extra cash to rebuild their lost livelihoods. These households will be unable to meet this need without resorting to atypical strategies involving wage labor, borrowing, and favoring the least expensive types of foods. Accordingly, these households, which represent less than 20 percent of the population, will be facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes as of March with the depletion of their home-grown crops and seasonal rise in prices.