Monitor Estacional

Seasonal forecasts call for generally good conditions for the growing season

15 Junio 2014

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

Países presenciales:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Países de monitoreo remoto:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
Concentración de personas desplazadas – coloque el puntero sobre el mapa para ver la clasificación de los campos en Nigeria.
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisis que es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero no necesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

Mensajes clave

  • April and May rainfall led to favorable conditions for crop development throughout the region as the season ranges from fully underway in the south to just beginning in the north.

  • In the northern part of the Sudanian-Sahlian zone where planting has not yet begun, timely sowing/planting is expected given the favorable medium term forecast for that area.

  • In contrast to earlier seasonal forecasts, more recent seasonal forecasts call for above-average rainfall totals for the season over most of the region, which should lead to good crop and pasture development.

Update on Seasonal Progress

  • Beginning in April with the onset of the rains and continuing through early May, the Intertertropical Front (ITF) progressed faster than seasonally typical northward, remaining north of its climatological position. Beginning in mid-May, however, its northward progression slowed, keeping it closer to its climatological position.
  • The early northward position of the ITF resulted in early and above-average rainfall over most of the region (Figures 1 and 2), though the monsoon season is yet to be fully established in Senegal and Mauritania. The temporal distribution of the rains has also been good, compensating in the Bi-modal and Guinean-Sudanian zone for the light to moderate rainfall deficits observed in some areas.
  • The generally above–average and well distributed rainfall observed throughout the month of April and during the first half of May made for favorable cropping conditions in the Bi-modal zone. It also allowed for an early planting and for continued crop development in the Guinean-Sudanian zone. Early partial planting was also possible in the south of the Sudanian-Sahelian zone in late April and during the first half of May.
  • Slowed northward migration of the ITF during the second half of May did not allow for the northward expansion of the early rains as was seen in previous weeks. It did, however, result in some moderate rainfall that benifited the first crop development stages where sowing already took place in the southern Sudanian-Sahelian zone. Crop (mainly millet) phenology in these areas varied from emergence to tillering. The northern part of the Sudanian-Sahelian zone, is expected to see on-time planting conditions given favorable medium-term forecasts.
  • According to short and medium term forecasts from NOAA/CPC, generally moderate to heavy rainfall is expected during the second and third weeks of  June over the whole region at the exception of the western part of the Sudanian-Sahelian (southern Mauritania, southwestern Mali and Senegal).

Forecasts

Most forecast models indicate a continued warming trend for the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures (SST), and will transition into weak or moderate El Niño conditions by the early northern summer, though this is not expected to have any significant influence on the rainfall pattern over West Africa. The SST forecast of the Tropical Eastern Atlantic calls for a cooling trend over the Gulf of Guinea and a strong south-north SST gradients along the western coast of West Africa. This situation is typically closely related to above-average rainfall over much of the Sudanian-Sahelian zone, which is corroborated by the NOAA-CPC Northern American Multi-Model Ensemble seasonal forecast for the next several three-month periods (June-August, July-September and August-October).

Sobre Este Informe

El monitor estacional se produce para cada una de las cuatro regiones cubiertas por FEWS NET durante la estación de producción. Este informe actualiza los totales de las precipitaciones, las repercusiones sobre la producción y el pronóstico a corto tiempo. Producido por el científico regional del Servicio de Prospección Geológica de Estados Unidos de FEWS NET, el informe es producido cada 20 días durante la estación de producción. Conozca más sobre nuestro trabajo.

About FEWS NET

La Red de Sistemas de Alerta Temprana contra la Hambruna es un proveedor de primera línea de alertas tempranas y análisis sobre la inseguridad alimentaria. Creada por la USAID en 1985 con el fin de ayudar a los responsables de tomar decisiones a prever crisis humanitarias, FEWS NET proporciona análisis asentados en evidencia sobre unos 35 países. Entre los integrantes del equipo ejecutor figuran la NASA, NOAA, USDA y el USGS, así como Chemonics International Inc. y Kimetrica. Lea más sobre nuestro trabajo.

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