Good rainfall in September and a delayed end of season will allow planted crops to reach full maturity in the Sahel
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ImprimirCIF v3.1 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda
CIF v3.1 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
CIF v3.1 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
UPDATE ON SEASONAL PROGRESS
Dekadal ITF position vs Normal - September second dekad
1 April - 20 September CHIRPS total anomaly (% of average)
Five first pentads of September combined rainfall deficits/dry spell
- As of the second dekad of September, the Intertropical Front (ITF), was located between 18 degrees of latitude north at the eastern border of Chad and 20 degrees of latitude north at Mauritania-Mali border. It had been slower than normal in its southward retreat, lagging its climatological position (Figure 1).
- The seasonal rainfall (Figure 2) has been generally average to above average and well distributed over the region. The nice time distribution also offset the negative impacts of deficits that are also mostly light in the few affected areas.
- Rainfall during the first five pentads of September has been mostly average and well distributed in the region (Figure 3) at the exception of few places. The areas most affected by combined rainfall deficits and dry spells include the area extending from southwest Cote d’Ivoire to eastern Liberia.
- In the Sahelian zone where the end of season is nearing, but likely to take place a little later than normal given the current position of the ITF, few rainfall events are still expected. Therefore, even in areas where planting was late crops will have the time to close their cycle.
- The September rainfall deficits and long dry spells experienced in the area extending from southwest of Cote d’Ivoire to eastern Liberia of the bimodal zone (Figure 3), will certainly have some negative impact on the minor season crop growth and development.
FORECASTS
- According to the short term forecasts from NOAA-CPC rainfall is expected for the first week of October in the northern part of the Sahelian zone.
- The SST October forecast calling for a cooler Gulf of Guinea and warmer Mediterranean sea augurs a slower than normal ITF retreat or a late end of season in the Sahelian and Sudanian zones.
Sobre Este Informe
El monitor estacional se produce para cada una de las cuatro regiones cubiertas por FEWS NET durante la estación de producción. Este informe actualiza los totales de las precipitaciones, las repercusiones sobre la producción y el pronóstico a corto tiempo. Producido por el científico regional del Servicio de Prospección Geológica de Estados Unidos de FEWS NET, el informe es producido cada 20 días durante la estación de producción. Conozca más sobre nuestro trabajo.
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La Red de Sistemas de Alerta Temprana contra la Hambruna es un proveedor de primera línea de alertas tempranas y análisis sobre la inseguridad alimentaria. Creada por la USAID en 1985 con el fin de ayudar a los responsables de tomar decisiones a prever crisis humanitarias, FEWS NET proporciona análisis asentados en evidencia sobre unos 35 países. Entre los integrantes del equipo ejecutor figuran la NASA, NOAA, USDA y el USGS, así como Chemonics International Inc. y Kimetrica. Lea más sobre nuestro trabajo.
