Despite a late start, cumulative rainfall in the Sahel is mostly average to above-average
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ImprimirCIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda
CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda
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CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
UPDATE ON SEASONAL PROGRESS
Figure 1. ITF position and RFE accumulated precipitation (mm), September 2021, Dekad 2
Figure 2. 1-25 September total CHIRPS anomaly (% of average)
- The ITF continues its southward retreat and is located between 15.4 degrees of latitude north in eastern Chad and 19.5 degrees in Mauritania as of the second dekad of September. It is at or close to its climatological position over the whole region (Figure 1).
- The end of the season in the Sahelian zone is nearing and the ITF being at its climatological position suggests the season end will be on time. It also means crops will reach maturity over most places in the Sahelian zone.
- Severe dryness in September has affected the Mopti region in Mali, part of Tillaberi, Tahoua and Maradi regions in Niger (Figure 2). The southwestern part of the region of Mopti and the northeastern part of Segou in Mali and the Maradi region in Niger are, in addition to severe rainfall deficit, also affected by long dry spells of over 15 days. The region of Tahoua only experienced rainfall severe deficits without dry spells.
- September dryness normally creates favorable conditions for crop pest outbreaks. Therefore, dryness affected areas of Mali and Niger are likely to suffer from crop pest attacks.
- The seasonal cumulative rainfall from May 1st to September 25 has been above average over most of the region. However, negative impact of dryness on crop and pasture development over areas where dryness has persisted for a very long time such as Far North Cameroon and Lake Chad is expected.
FORECASTS
- According to the short and medium term forecasts from NOAA-CPC, no rainfall in the Sahelian zone. This means that the season will end in the Sahelian by early October.
- The NOAA-CPC Northern American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) monthly forecast for October generally predict below average rainfall over the Guinean and Sudano-Guinean zones.
Sobre Este Informe
El monitor estacional se produce para cada una de las cuatro regiones cubiertas por FEWS NET durante la estación de producción. Este informe actualiza los totales de las precipitaciones, las repercusiones sobre la producción y el pronóstico a corto tiempo. Producido por el científico regional del Servicio de Prospección Geológica de Estados Unidos de FEWS NET, el informe es producido cada 20 días durante la estación de producción. Conozca más sobre nuestro trabajo.
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La Red de Sistemas de Alerta Temprana contra la Hambruna es un proveedor de primera línea de alertas tempranas y análisis sobre la inseguridad alimentaria. Creada por la USAID en 1985 con el fin de ayudar a los responsables de tomar decisiones a prever crisis humanitarias, FEWS NET proporciona análisis asentados en evidencia sobre unos 35 países. Entre los integrantes del equipo ejecutor figuran la NASA, NOAA, USDA y el USGS, así como Chemonics International Inc. y Kimetrica. Lea más sobre nuestro trabajo.
