High food prices and security tensions limit access to food

The country is broadly facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity due to high prices that limit poor households' access to food. However, in conflict-affected areas, reduced harvests and agricultural employment opportunities negatively impact food availability and income. In Tillabéry and Tahoua, poor households experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes due to limited access to food assistance. The humanitarian food assistance is helping to alleviate food insecurity in Diffa and Southern Maradi, where poor households are facing Stress! (IPC Phase 2!).

The provisional results of the agricultural campaign are estimated at 5,791,641 tons for cereals in comparison to 3,497,696 tons in 2021. The agricultural campaign results indicate the availability of fodder, improving animal body conditions and the goat/millet terms of trade estimated in October 2022 at 128 kg of millet per goat compared to 103 kg in October 2021 and 127 kg on average. However, early transhumance of herds to areas less affected by insecurity has been observed, as well as the persistence of animal theft in the pastoral areas in the Tillabéry, Tahoua, and Maradi regions.

Most markets have adequate supplies of dry cereals. However, the available quantities are below the typical level following the combined effects of the significant reduction in carryover stocks and the flow of foodstuffs from Burkina Faso, Nigeria, and Mali, and the delay in completing the harvest following the late onset of the rainy season.

Based on the average prices observed in the country's markets, year-over-year variations of the cost of millet and sorghum are down 13 and 5 percent, respectively. In contrast, compared to their five-year average, maize, sorghum, and millet are up 17, 14, and 13 percent, respectively. Due to above-average seasonal prices, poor households cannot afford non-food or food expenses.

Forced displacement of populations increased from 224,016 in September 2021 to an estimated 376,809 in September 2022 due to increased conflict. The regions of Tillabéry, Diffa, Tahoua, and Maradi are the areas most affected by displacement, while Tillabéry and Diffa account for more than 80 percent of the displaced population.