Perspectiva de seguridad alimentaria

Agricultural production is in deficit due to climatic and security shocks.

Octubre 2021

Octubre 2021 - Enero 2022

Febrero - Mayo 2022

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

Países presenciales:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Países de monitoreo remoto:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

Mensajes clave

  • Production of cereals, cash crops and pastures is expected to be below average due to a late start, dry spells and an early end to the rainy season, in addition to security shocks. This will result in an early depletion of cereal stocks in December/January and reduced availability of fodder due to inaccessibility in conflict areas and losses due to bushfires.

  • Despite the ongoing harvests, supplies are still below normal and product prices are above average due to lower flows and high transaction costs. This is likely to continue because of low domestic cereal supplies and the ongoing disruption of flows following the reductions in agricultural production reported in source countries.

  • The hotbeds of conflict and insecurity remained active even during the rainy season, which is usually a period of calm because of natural obstacles. Conflict and insecurity are spreading to new areas along the border with Burkina Faso, and security incidents and casualties will increase as the rainy season ends, leading to further displacement of people.

  • The hotbeds of conflict and insecurity remained active even during the rainy season, which is usually a period of calm because of natural obstacles. Conflict and insecurity are spreading to new areas along the border with Burkina Faso, and security incidents and casualties will increase as the rainy season ends, leading to further displacement of people.

  • Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected in most of the country as cereal and cash crop harvests strengthen purchasing power, except in northern Tillabéry and Nord Tahoua, where Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will prevail due to a lack of own food supplies and access to food assistance. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity will prevail in the country from February through May 2022 due to the depletion of cereal stocks and rising prices of consumer products. The Diffa and Maradi regions will be Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) thanks to food assistance, while Tillabéry and Tahoua will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) during the same period.

National Overview

Current Situation

Limited rainfall and the early end to the rainy season in most of the agropastoral zone in September did not make up for the delayed start to the growing season in June. While the resumption of rainfall and the cumulative rainfall recorded in July through August helped improve water conditions, neither was sufficient to allow crops to complete their normal vegetative cycle. This had a negative impact on national production. The regions most affected by these climate events and their impact on the outcomes of the growing season were Tillabéry, Agadez, Diffa, and Tahoua. These are also places where the area of land under cultivation is below average because of the effects of insecurity on agricultural activities. Crop production is also expected to decline slightly in the Zinder, Maradi, and Dosso regions as a result of pest attacks (stem borers), water stress and hail.

Despite the overall rainfall deficits recorded, August was characterized by heavy rainfall that caused flooding, destroying 7,017 hectares of dune crops and affecting 238,078 people in all regions.

The outlook for fodder production is also compromised in the pastoral zone because, in addition to the late onset of rains, the pastoral season suffered from long periods of drought in July and September, which had a significant impact on the development of biomass. In addition, 88 cases of bushfires were recorded on about 300,000 hectares in the pastoral zone, including more than 200,000 hectares in the Tahoua region, resulting in the destruction of fodder crops. The pastoral zones most affected by reduced availability were Tahoua, Zinder, Diffa, and Maradi, as a result of rainfall deficits and bushfires. In the northern parts of the Tillabéry, Tahoua, and Diffa regions, insecurity — in addition to the effects of climate events and bushfires — is reducing grazing space for livestock. Livestock drink from surface water, which has an average to below-average filling level due to the rainfall deficits recorded in the area. The physical condition of livestock is still average.

The security situation continues to be disrupted by larger and more severe incidents in the Niger part of Liptako Gourma and in the southwestern part of the Maradi region (Figure 1). Niger is also dealing with an increase in internally displaced populations. According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), approximately 600,000 people were in a situation of forced displacement in September 2021, including approximately 300,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs), and 243,000 refugees from Nigeria, Mali and Burkina Faso. The most affected regions are Tillabéry, with about 51 percent of IDPs, Diffa with 26 percent, Tahoua with 18 percent and Maradi with 5 percent. There has been a decline in the number of IDPs in the Diffa region due to the government of Niger's organized return of 30,208 people (6,036 households) to their places of origin in Baroua in the eastern part of the Diffa region.

The COVID-19 situation shows a total of 6,139 confirmed cases on October 13, 2021 compared with 5,938 cases in September: a month-on-month increase of 3  percent. Deaths are estimated at a total of 204 cases: an increase of 1 percent compared with the same period in the previous month.

The Minister of Public Health has launched the third mass vaccination campaign throughout the country. The goal is to vaccinate 30 percent of the target population of people aged 18 and over by the end of this year. By October 5, 2021, a total of 1,350,000 vaccine doses had been received and another 2,100,000 doses will be delivered through the World Health Organization (WHO) COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access (COVAX) initiative.

Niger is also experiencing an increase in cholera. A total of 5,343 cases including 156 deaths, representing a case fatality rate of 3 percent, were recorded between March 13 (the start date of the cholera epidemic) and October 12, 2021. The most affected regions are Maradi (3,011 cases and 49 deaths), Tahoua (1,239 cases and 64 deaths), Zinder (566 cases and 20 deaths), Tillabéry (307 cases and 10 deaths) and Niamey (112 cases and 12 deaths). The dynamics of the cholera epidemic in Niger show that 10 of the 34 outbreaks at the beginning of the epidemic were still active on October 12, 2021, with the highest number of active outbreaks (four) observed in the Tahoua region. The only outbreak in the Diffa region is in the Diffa health district, which is still active. All active outbreaks in the Dosso and Niamey regions had ended by October 12, 2021. To tackle the epidemic and its impact on the health and nutritional situation, the government, in collaboration with partners, has deployed multidisciplinary teams in the health regions, provided supplies to control cholera in the health districts, opened cholera treatment units in the health areas, and provided free treatment for confirmed cases.

With regard to the nutritional situation, according to the data collected through the health information database of the Sanitation and Health Information Division, 273,748 children, or 69 percent of the annual Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) target (396,467) suffering from moderate acute malnutrition, and 266,283 children, or 58.2 percent of the annual HRP target (457,200) suffering from severe acute malnutrition, were admitted to the national integrated management of acute malnutrition program between January and August 2021 (Figure 2). Trends in admissions for moderate acute malnutrition and severe acute malnutrition at the national level show an increase in the country, especially in the health districts where cholera outbreaks remain active. The situation is even more worrying in the border areas of the Maradi region, where the number of children admitted for treatment of acute malnutrition has increased significantly since the beginning of the year. The health districts of Madarounfa, Guidan-Roumdji, and Tessaoua are recording a large number of cases due to poor feeding practices and the presence of children from Nigeria in the nutritional recovery centers in this part of Niger.

On the cereal markets, the availability of cereals is generally satisfactory in most places, except those located in conflict/insecure or landlocked areas, due to the gradual availability of new crops. Nonetheless, availability remains below average. This decline is much more noticeable for imported cereals (maize and sorghum) because of the restrictions on their imports that persist in Burkina Faso but which were lifted in Benin in mid-October. This is in addition to the reduction in flows from Nigeria, where declines are estimated at over 50 percent. Currently, demand comes mainly from traders, some institutions and consumers. Prices for all cereals have remained almost constant compared with last month. Nonetheless, they have risen significantly compared with the same period last year and the five-year average (particularly for maize, by 20 percent and 31 percent respectively) due to the slowdown in the flow of products from supply countries.

The supply of livestock on the markets is also stable in most places other than those located in insecure/conflict zones. However, demand for all species remains below average due to the low presence of external traders and comes exclusively from local traders, butchers and fatteners and some Burkinabe and Nigerian traders. Average prices for all animal species remain almost constant compared with last month, due to the balance between supply and demand in most markets. They have, however, risen slightly compared with the same period last year for all categories, particularly goats (up by 17 percent), bulls (up by 10 percent) and rams (up by 8 percent). Conversely, prices are stable for sheep and cattle but have risen slightly (up by 13 percent) for goats compared with the five-year average. However, an analysis of monitored markets shows price declines of more than 15 percent compared with the same period in 2020 and the five-year average. The markets affected by these declines are Téra (-35 percent), Kinjindi (-20 percent), and Torodi (-21 percent) for cattle; Maradi commune (-27 percent), Koundoumawa (-22 percent), and Boureimi (-19 percent) for sheep; and Gothèye (-25 percent), Nguelkolo (-23 percent), Maradi commune (-20 percent), Mangaïsé (-19 percent), and Kablewa (-18 percent) for goats due to reduced demand in these markets.

The main source of household income is the sale of i) agricultural products, ii) livestock and iii) agricultural labor. Due to the reduced harvest, both the quantities being sold and income earned are lower than average. Demand for labor is also low due to the reduced harvest, and the cost and income of farm labor are 25 to 50 percent lower than average. Income from the sale of livestock is average.

A situation analysis of the humanitarian response between March and August 2021 shows that 1,500,000 people out of a national total of 2,300,000 targeted by the response (67 percent) have been reached (Figure 3). This humanitarian assistance includes free distribution of provisions, fortified flour, pulses and cash to vulnerable poor people, IDPs, and people affected by shocks (floods, fires, and bushfires). The evaluation of this response at the national level by the Food Crisis Unit of the Prime Minister's Office indicates that there is fairly good to average coverage of the needs of the target populations in the regions of Diffa, Dosso, Niamey, Tahoua, and Maradi, and poor coverage in the regions of Tillabéry and Zinder.

Food security outcomes: Most poor households in the country are currently consuming their own agricultural production, despite the agricultural deficit. They are in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity, which means they are able to cover their food and non-food expenditures from agricultural sales and labor. In pastoral areas, the physical condition of livestock and the availability of milk have improved, along with the market value of livestock, allowing sufficient access to consumer products.

Insecure areas remain Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) in the Diffa and Maradi regions thanks to fairly good and average coverage of needs by food assistance. Households are nevertheless unable to cover their non-food needs. However, the situation is more critical in the northern regions of Tillabéry and Tahoua, which are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to food and protection deficits resulting from the drop in production, low purchasing power, high consumer product prices, and poor coverage of needs by food assistance.

Assumptions

  • Security situation outlook: Insecurity will intensify to a higher-than-average level with the early end of the rainy season, resulting in an increase in the number of security incidents, affected populations, and population displacements during the scenario period. In addition, insecurity will increase with the organization of self-defense groups, which are often formed on an ethnic basis in the regions of Tillabéry, Tahoua, and Maradi, to combat incursions by armed bandits and extremist militants. The latter may enjoy the tacit support of local authorities and security forces and provoke fears of a possible increase in inter-communal violence, pitting members of sedentary communities against Fulani pastoralists, who are often accused of supporting violent extremist organizations.
  • COVID-19 outlook: Low vaccination rates, the emergence of new variants, and the volatility of the COVID-19 situation, particularly in several neighboring countries, mean there is potential for a new wave in Niger. The effects on household livelihoods and economic opportunities in the country could be similar to the situation observed at the same time last year. The retroactive effects of the pandemic on urban transport, small-scale trade, handicrafts, caretaking, catering and informal sector jobs may persist and the incomes of households dependent on these economic activities will be below average.
  • Outlook for agricultural production and cash crops: Overall, agricultural production will be below average. The largest declines in agricultural production compared with the average will be seen in the regions of Agadez, Tillabéry, Diffa, and Tahoua, and locally in the Zinder region. As with cereals, water shortages affecting cash crops could lead to lower-than-average production. This year, producers will not continue marketing cowpeas, sesame, tiger nuts and groundnuts to cover some expenses and to bolster cereal stocks, and income from the sale of agricultural products will be below average.
  • Outlook for off-season and flood recession crops: The limited availability of water for irrigated crops, which are scheduled to start in October, will negatively affect off-season activities. However, flood recession crops could be grown according to the usual schedule in January and February 2022. An average to deficit vegetable production season is therefore expected.
  • Outlook for pastoral production, transhumance and physical condition of livestock: Improvements in the physical condition of livestock and increased milk availability will be observed between October and December and even January 2022, and will contribute to improved food supplies and income for livestock-farming households. However, in the pastoral areas of Tahoua, Diffa, Agadez, Tillabéry, and Zinder, which will be more affected by low fodder availability this year due to low rainfall, bushfires and in some cases, insecurity, the internal movement of livestock will be disrupted and an early descent to the south will be observed in November and December. In all areas, cross-border transhumance of livestock will be less frequent in March, April, and May 2022 due to insecurity and the closure of the borders of host countries. This will result in a high animal surplus for the available fodder in the south and other secure areas, accompanied by an earlier depletion of available fodder and a deterioration in the physical condition of livestock over the same period.
  • Outlook for institutional purchases: The optimal replenishment of stocks by traders, farmers' organizations, institutions and state structures will take place between October and January. However, given the erratic rainfall conditions recorded in several areas of the country, this situation could put additional pressure on local markets and cause prices to rise further between January and February 2022.
  • Outlook for labor, migration and remittances: Local employment for harvesting work will begin in October for rainfed crops and will continue until April for flood recession and off-season crops, but at a lower level than normal. Poor households will earn lower-than-average incomes. However, there will be opportunities to sell straw, wood and handicrafts that will add to the purchasing power of households and allow them to increase their food resources.
  • Migration will start as usual and in the traditional destination areas and countries, but the number of migrants will remain below average due to ongoing restrictions and the closure of land borders. Remittances will be higher than last year but will remain below average due to the lingering residual effects of COVID-19 on the economies of host countries and areas.
  • Market supply: The supply of dry cereals to rural and urban markets is expected to increase seasonally in the coming months as crops are harvested from October to January. It will, however, remain below average due to low carryover stocks, low production levels in supply countries and road congestion that will hamper cross-border transactions and flows.
  • Market demand: The overall demand for cereals for household consumption will be typical during the October to December 2021 period owing to the expected shortfall in overall domestic production. However, a gradual and seasonal increase is expected from January to May 2022 due to direct institutional purchases and the use of markets by poor households and those in deficit areas. Households’ dependence on markets in the conflict-affected regions of Diffa, Tillabéry, and Nord Tahoua will increase, resulting in above-average demand.
  • Flows: Internal flows will continue as normal thanks to widespread average harvests between October and December and will supply remote markets and those in areas with a structural deficit. From January to May 2022, cross-border flows from the regional market in countries such as Benin, Togo, Ghana, Cote d'Ivoire, Burkina Faso and Nigeria will supply Niger's local markets, but at below-average levels due to the restrictions that will be maintained or renewed in some countries.The expected drop in production in Nigeria and the high prices of products on the international market will be a further significant factor. Flows will remain disrupted and supply times will be extended in the conflict zones of Tillabéry, Diffa, and Tahoua.
  • Food prices: Price levels will start to fall seasonally from October onward in most markets as the harvests become more widespread. In markets where declines have already been observed in October, they will be minimal compared with those usually observed during the harvest. Food prices will continue their atypical upward trend and will be above average between January and May 2022.
  • Livestock prices: Livestock markets will remain lively and livestock prices will remain average between October and December, when there is expected to be strong demand from coastal countries to support the Christmas and New Year's celebrations in December. This could result in higher incomes and favorable terms of trade for farmers. From January onward, prices could be lower than the five-year average due to the low demand for exports to Nigeria, which remains the most important destination market, and the average weight of livestock.
  • Outlook for humanitarian assistance: Humanitarian assistance from the state and its partners is underway in the Diffa region and in the south of Maradi, where it will continue throughout the scenario period. Assistance will be provided in the Tillabéry and Tahoua regions but will cover less than 20 percent of those in need. In the rest of the country, this assistance will begin in March and continue until at least the end of May, as in a normal year, in the form of the sale of cereals and food at moderate prices and/or cash for work. It will therefore benefit only households without purchasing power or workers. Overall, this assistance will help maintain good availability on the markets and among households and will support household access to cereals in areas with a structural deficit.

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

The majority of poor household groups in agricultural, agropastoral, and pastoral areas, which are less affected by the effects of flooding this year, will remain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) between October 2021 and January 2022. Moreover, households are increasingly recovering from the retroactive effects of COVID-19 and will have their own cereal stocks covering at least three to four months of consumption (despite the drop in production), and purchasing power for cereals through the sale of agricultural and livestock products to cover their food consumption while protecting their livelihoods. By February to May 2022, stocks will be depleted and consumer prices will be at very high levels, resulting in terms of trade that are unfavorable to sellers of cash crops and livestock, and a significant decline for poor farming, agropastoral and pastoral households whose food consumption will be through credit purchases, borrowing money and unusual sales of livestock. In these areas, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity will prevail among at least 20 percent of households; some of these households (no more than 5 to 9 percent) will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

The nutritional situation in Niger is typically marked, even during the harvest period in October, November, and December, by a high or very high prevalence of global acute malnutrition of between 10 and 15 percent. According to humanitarian actors working in the nutrition sector, there is a risk of an increase in the number of children suffering from severe acute malnutrition this year due to the combined effects of insecurity and flooding, followed by forced displacement, endemic diseases and epidemics (malaria, COVID-19, cholera, and measles) on the food and nutrition situation of many households.

Food conditions for displaced persons and poor households in the conflict-affected and insecure areas of Tillabéry, Tahoua, Diffa, and Maradi will be marked by low or depleted stocks, low levels of market supplies with high prices, severely low purchasing power for consumer products, and therefore food consumption deficits for the majority of assisted households in the Diffa and Maradi regions, which will remain in Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!). Households that receive little or no assistance in the Tillabéry and Tahoua, where civil insecurity has disrupted livelihoods, will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity from October 2021 to January 2022 and from February to May 2022.

Events that could change the scenario

Area

 

 

Possible events

Impact on food security outcomes

 

 

 

 

National

Increased security tensions

Significant reduction in the flow of consumer, cash and livestock products and a decrease in migration and remittances. Space for humanitarian action will be reduced and there is likely to be an increase in the number of people in a Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security situation.

Increase in COVID-19 cases and renewal of COVID-19 restrictions

Significant decline in both rural and urban incomes, leading to food insecurity for households dependent on informal activities.

Delayed or inadequate funding for implementing the food and humanitarian response plan

Decrease in the quantities of cereals and cash distributed and a decrease in the number of beneficiary households. This will result in food and livelihood protection deficits over a wider area and an increase in the number of food-insecure areas and households.

Short off-season and recession crop season due to the rapid drying up of water points and the limited replenishment of the water table

Reduction in the area sown and a reduction in dry-season agricultural production. Reduction in dry-season farm income due to lower production, lower demand for labor and fewer products sold.

 

Sobre El Desarrollo De Escenarios

Para proyectar los resultados de seguridad alimentaria en un período de seis meses, FEWS NET desarrolla una serie de supuestos sobre eventos probables, sus efectos, y las posibles respuestas de varios actores. FEWS NET analiza estos supuestos en el contexto de las condiciones actuales y los medios de vida locales para desarrollar escenarios estimando los productos de seguridad alimentaria. Típicamente, FEWS NET reporta el escenario más probable. Para conocer más, haga clic aqui.

About FEWS NET

La Red de Sistemas de Alerta Temprana contra la Hambruna es un proveedor de primera línea de alertas tempranas y análisis sobre la inseguridad alimentaria. Creada por la USAID en 1985 con el fin de ayudar a los responsables de tomar decisiones a prever crisis humanitarias, FEWS NET proporciona análisis asentados en evidencia sobre unos 35 países. Entre los integrantes del equipo ejecutor figuran la NASA, NOAA, USDA y el USGS, así como Chemonics International Inc. y Kimetrica. Lea más sobre nuestro trabajo.

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