Key Message Update

Below-average harvests and high food prices limit access to food for poor households

Noviembre 2021

Noviembre 2021 - Enero 2022

Phase 1 de l'IPC

Febrero - Mayo 2022

Phase 2 de l'IPC

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

Países presenciales:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Países de monitoreo remoto:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

Mensajes clave

  • The agricultural season saw very little rainfall compared to normal, with poor spatial-temporal distribution throughout the area. As of September 30, 78 percent of rainfall stations recorded deficits across the country compared to normal (1991-2020) and about 81 percent compared to last year (GTS, November 2021). However, the sporadic rains at the end of the season in October made it possible to increase water reserves in dams, reservoirs and low-lying areas, reaching 40 to 100 percent of capacity, except in Assaba and Tagant (around 20 percent). As a result of the low rainfall accumulation, the 2021/22 Joint Crop Assessment estimates cereal production at 339,174 tons, down 16 percent from last year and down 7 percent from the average. This drop in production compared to average is most notable in Guidimakha (54%), Hodh Ech Chargui (48%), Adrar and Assaba (39%), Hodh Ech Garbi (33%) and Gorgol (30%).

  • Across the country, low water levels have a significant impact on agricultural yields. In the areas of Walo (recession), sowing (from October-November) is minimal in Brakna and Gorgol (except in Maghama) and almost non-existent in Trarza due to the less-than-average filling rates of dams and water basins. Therefore, the expected harvests will be below average. Although the cold (market gardening) and hot (rice growing) off-season crops are at varied phonological stages (from tillering to the start of ripening), producers remain faced with poor access to quality seeds, which risks compromising production. The current below average level of the Senegal River will considerably reduce the areas that will be cultivated in the hot season (March to June).

  • Water deficits have also impacted the development of pastureland, which has led to early departures in transhumance in most areas of the country. This is most notable at the level of the two Hodhs, in Assaba, in Tagant, east of Brakna, at the level of Moughataa from Boutilimit and Oued Naga to Trarza, as well as in the wilayas of the north of the country (Adrar, Dakhlet Nouadhibou, Tiris Zemour and Inchiri) (Specialized Technical Group (GTS) in charge of monitoring the agropastoral season, November 2021 report). Poor pastoral conditions force breeders to make atypical offers for the sale of livestock in local markets, in order to obtain staple foods from producers and carry out preventive destocking as the early upcoming pastoral lean season approaches. This allows pastoralists to have a bit more purchasing power to meet their basic food and non-food needs, while avoiding the associated costs of having more livestock.

  • Internal and external flows of staple foods are regular with a good level of supply to the markets. However, due to inflation, the high prices for basic necessities compared to average persist at the market level, with a more than 50 percent price increase of some imported staples. There is a significant increase in the prices of wheat and oils compared to last year, even exceeding 50 percent in places. As for local rice and sugar, the increase is less, closer to 20 percent. In addition, the end of cash distributions by humanitarian organizations in the northern and central areas of the country accentuates the drop in income, making poor populations even more vulnerable before an early lean season. After the current harvest season, where acute food insecurity is Minimal (IPC Phase 1), these poor households will remain exposed to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity outcomes from February until May 2022.

About FEWS NET

La Red de Sistemas de Alerta Temprana contra la Hambruna es un proveedor de primera línea de alertas tempranas y análisis sobre la inseguridad alimentaria. Creada por la USAID en 1985 con el fin de ayudar a los responsables de tomar decisiones a prever crisis humanitarias, FEWS NET proporciona análisis asentados en evidencia sobre unos 35 países. Entre los integrantes del equipo ejecutor figuran la NASA, NOAA, USDA y el USGS, así como Chemonics International Inc. y Kimetrica. Lea más sobre nuestro trabajo.

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