Average to above-average terms of trade for pastoralists

For the second consecutive season cereal production is above the five-year average in the country (23 percent forecast). This is mainly due to the good performance of flood-recession and irrigated crops, as late October rains helped fill the ponds, dams, and the river to a sufficient level.

However, harvests in the agropastoral and rainfed zone are below average due to the poor distribution of rains in September. As a result, poor households in these zones are more dependent on markets than usual. In addition, flooding had been recorded in places in these areas. Poor and very poor households in these areas are experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

Fodder production deficits are recorded in the wilayas of Trarza, Brakna, Gorgol, Guidimakha, and Assaba. Despite the satisfactory levels of water points, the pastoral lean season will be more difficult in these areas between February and June. Milk availability could be reduced between February and March compared to normal. Similarly, livestock could lose some of their market value with the deterioration of their body conditions during this period. This will lead to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food security outcomes in these areas. 

Local and border markets are well supplied with staple foods and prices are generally stable compared to the average. In October 2019, livestock prices, particularly for small ruminants, were about 25 percent higher than the five-year average in Adel Bagrou and Tintane markets. Livestock/cereal terms of trade were above average for the period as a result.