Perspectiva de seguridad alimentaria

Stress in some areas due to cropping and pasture deficits

De Enero 2014 hasta Junio 2014
2014-Q1-1-1-MR-en

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

Países presenciales:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Países de monitoreo remoto:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

Mensajes clave

  • Infestations of flood-recession crops in the Senegal River Valley and agropastoral areas by crop pests (stalk borers and beetles) are sharply reducing household cereal production in these areas. With the poor distribution of rainfall in 2013, certain parts of these areas were already suffering the effects of large deficits of rainfed cereal crop harvests.

  • Poor households in rainfed farming and agropastoral areas will continue to depend on market purchase for their food needs through the end of June due to the below-average levels of cereal production in these areas. Their seasonal incomes will not fully compensate for their crop losses and they will have difficulty meeting their basic nonfood needs. Thus, between January and June they will be facing Stressed levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 2).

  • Households in northern Guidimakha affected by large production losses are having difficulty generating seasonal incomes. Poor households in this area will likely be facing food consumption gaps preventing them from meeting their basic food needs and will experience Crisis levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3) between April and June.

  • A normal availability of household food stocks and access to seasonal income are maintaining Minimal levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) in the rest of the country.

National Overview

Current situation

Progress of the season: The summer rainy season has been over since the end of October and the cold season rains are getting off to a slow start, particularly in the northern and central reaches of the country. The current light rainfall activity is insufficient to have any major positive effect on flood-recession crops and pastures.

Farming conditions: Harvests of rainfed crops and “winter” rice crops are completed. With the poor distribution of rainfall in certain areas, they are 39 percent lower than in 2012 due mainly to a decreae in the areas planted and lower crop yields. Cropping areas in Gorgol and Guidimakha were decreased by 31 percent and 87 percent, respectively. In spite of these shortfalls, nationwide rainfed cereal production is still three percent above the five-year average.

Flood-recession crops (walo and lowland crops) in the Senegal River Valley and agropastoral areas hard hit by infestations of crop pests (beetles and stalk borers) produced weak harvests. The harvest outlook for ongoing market gardening activities in the River Valley and in oasis areas is about average. Locust infestations are under control and, in any event, can no longer seriously hurt flood-recession crops, which have already failed in most production areas.

Pastoral conditions: The condition of pastures in agropastoral and transhumant pastoral areas and the River Valley, which normally meet livestock needs through April/May, is already starting to deteriorate. As usual, pastures in the rest of the country are still in good enough condition to meet the needs of local and transhumant livestock until the rains begin.

Seasonal income: The poorer than usual growing season for flood-recession crops exacerbated shortfalls in local seasonal income. The incomes of poor households for the period between June and October were already 50 percent below-average. Income levels for October/November were above-average due to the large supply of work in flood-recession farming areas, but January incomes fell to more than 60 percent below-average. The small size of cropped areas has limited the use of outside labor, both in the harvest and in related activities (such as transportation and crop processing).

In spite of the 30 to 50 percent higher price of farm labor due to the heavy demand early in the season, seasonal income levels in the rest of the country are approximately 33 percent below-average due to the sharp reduction in work hours. The only exception are the higher incomes of poor households in the western reaches of the Senegal River Valley, where rice harvests were similar in size to 2012 harvests (which was a bumper year).

Markets and prices: Markets in all Livelihood Zones are still getting regular, adequate supplies of imported foodstuffs. There is a good availability of imported cereals (wheat and rice) from domestic importers and assistance programs (village-level food security stocks (SAVS) and government-subsidized shops (boutiques de solidarité). Coarse grain availability, on the decline between November and December, has since been bolstered by sales of the carry-over stocks of Malian farmers from their 2012/2013 harvests.

However, even with this revitalization of trade, sorghum prices are generally well above the average for the last four years, except in agropastoral Livelihood Zone 7, where sales of Malian cereal have reduced prices by 6.5 percent. Unit prices per moud (approximately four kilograms) in rural areas far from the border whose only source of supply is local cereal production are hovering around 900 MRO, considerably above the five-year average. Prices in the Senegal River Valley are approximately 15.7 percent above the average for this same period, while prices in rainfed farming areas are two percent above the five-year average. However, the pursuit of assistance programs selling rice at prices 30 to 40 percent below formal market prices and in which wheat is 40 to 50 percent less expensive than sorghum should counteract the negative effect of the high price of sorghum, which is one of the main staple cereals in agropastoral areas and northern Guidimakha.

Livestock prices are still up by an average of 15 to 20 percent, in line with seasonal trends. The demand associated with the religious holidays has since been supplanted by large-scale purchases of animals by Malian farmers selling or trading their carry-over stocks of crops to make way for this year’s crops. However, the only parties profiting from this are large pastoralists able to travel to local capitals. Prices in rural areas are not as high due to speculation by traders and the fears triggered by the deterioration in pastoral conditions among poor households feeling increasingly hard pressed to maintain their herds in the face of the steady rise in the price of animal feed since the beginning of the year.

Assumptions

The most likely nationwide food security scenario for the period from January through June 2014 was established based on the following general assumptions:

Production:

  • The rice harvests in the western reaches of the Senegal River Valley have improved the availability of rice for poor households. Output by the domestic private sector and exports of Senegalese rice will strengthen available rice supplies on markets across the country. The juxtaposition of these two factors will limit rises in the prices of local rice crops between January and March.
  • Cereal availability in rainfed farming areas (with the exception of central and northern Guidimakha) will be near average through March. As usual, poor households will deplete their cereal stocks between April and June, forcing them to resort to purchasing their food needs.
  • There will be below-average cereal availability for poor households in the central reaches of the Senegal River Valley and in agropastoral and oasis areas due to the failure of rainfed and flood-recession crops, which are the main source of their cereal stocks.
  • Food supplies from out-of-area work in farming-related activities (threshing, transportation, winnowing, and storage) or short-term seasonal labor migration to crop-producing areas of Mali between January and March will be much smaller than normal due to shortfalls in local and out-of-area harvests of late-season crops.
  • As usual, there will be an adequate supply of pasture through the end of June, except in the River Valley and the southwestern reaches of agropastoral Livelihood Zone 7, where pastures have been unable to meet the needs of local and transhumant livestock since the beginning of January. Animals in all pastoral areas should be in satisfactory physical shape through March, which is about-average, except in the central reaches of the River Valley and the northwestern and southern reaches of agropastoral Livelihood Zone 7, where pastures already in mediocre condition due to the poor distribution of rainfall have been invaded by transhumant herds from transhumant pastoral areas of the country and northern Senegal.

Market behavior and price trends:

  • Markets should have regular, adequate supplies, with a normal flow of domestic and cross-border trade, which should be large enough to continue to meet domestic demand.
  • Sorghum prices will stay quite high, but will steadily decline between January and March (putting them 30 to 60 percent below-average).
  • Prices for rice, the main staple cereal crop, will be above the five-year average by margins similar to figures for 2013 (between four and 12 percent, depending on the area). However, they will stabilize at their current levels between January and June. Prices for wheat, the main substitute cereal available on the market, from village-level food security stocks (SAVS), and in government-subsidized shops (BS), will fluctuate by between five and 12 percent between January and June, in line with trends in 2013, driven by a growing demand with the deterioration in the condition of pastures. A large number of pastoralists in urban areas are using wheat as an animal feed. However, there will be a sharp decline in the demand for wheat from large pastoralists with their earlier than usual departure for seasonal grazing lands (in January instead of March/April).
  • Government assistance programs such as village-level food security stocks (SAVS) and government-subsidized shops (BS) will be strengthened.
  • Steep rises in livestock prices are expected through the month of June. In fact, normal seasonal rises in prices during this period will be heightened by the large demand from Malian farmers selling their carry-over cereal stocks from 2012/2013 in order to buy livestock. Terms of trade for livestock (sheep, goats, cattle, and camels) versus cereal (sorghum, wheat, and rice) will remain in favor of pastoralists, even with expected rises in the prices of imported cereal (Malian sorghum, rice, and wheat) between April and June.

Income:

  • There will be average levels of income from local employment, except in central and northern Guidimakha, northern and eastern Gorgol, northern Brakna, western Assaba, and the River Valley, where the scaling back of farming activities will significantly affect household income from farm labor in flood-recession farming areas between January and March.
  • Eco-based activities (sales of hay, wood, and charcoal) will also be scaled back between April and June due to surveillance by Environmental Ministry agents and competition from tank trucks carrying gas supplies into rural areas.
  • There will be an average flow of income from out-of-area work and short-term seasonal labor migration, except in the two areas of concern referred to earlier, where both sources are expected to generate higher levels of income between April and June with the earlier than usual departure and larger numbers of such workers.
  • There will be less wage income from pastoral activities between January and March with the premature departure of transhumant livestock herds. With pastoral areas emptied of livestock, there will be no work for the pastoral workforce. This will continue to be the case between April and June.
Most likely food security outcomes

There will be Minimal acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) between January and March in all rural areas with the exception of northern Guidimakha, northeastern Gorgol, and northeastern Brakna (as explained in the following sections). Crop and animal production and rising prices for livestock will give poor households regular access to an adequate food supply and enable them to meet their nonfood needs. However, the impact of the partial failure of flood-recession crops and the unexpected rapid deterioration in pastoral conditions in agropastoral areas and the central reaches of the River Valley will speed up the deterioration in food security conditions in the above-mentioned areas, stressing food security outcomes (Phase 2, IPC 2.0) between April and June, two months before the beginning of the lean season.

Areas of Concern

Livelihood Zone 9, Rainfed cultivation

This Livelihood Zone includes the northern part of Sélibaby department and all of Ould Yengé department, where approximately 75 percent of the local population consists of poor farmers with only one harvest of rainfed crops per year, which provides 35 percent of their annual food supply and whose sale generates 20 percent of their annual income. Thus, they are extremely vulnerable to rainfall shocks affecting their farming activities. Their main livelihood and coping strategy is short-term seasonal labor migration, which furnishes approximately 20 percent of their income and is an important source of access to foodstuffs sold commercially, since they purchase 38 percent of their food supplies on the market.

Current situation
  • The poor distribution of rainfall during the rainy season created large shortfalls in rainfed crop production in this Livelihood Zone. Poor households, which normally have large enough stocks of rainfed crops to meet their food needs through March/April, had already depleted their food stocks by November.
  • As usual, current pastoral conditions in most of this rainfed farming area are still satisfactory. However, the dwindling supply of surface water has led to herders abandoning some areas (northern Guidimakha) and created budding overgrazing problems in the central reaches of the Livelihood Zone, which have already been deserted by large pastoralists headed south and into Mali.
  • Good market supplies of imported foodstuffs are currently ensuring adequate food availability. In fact, there is an unrestricted flow of imports by local traders and of cross-border trade with Mali, and assistance programs in the area such as SAVS and BS programs, out-patient therapeutic feeding centers (CRENAMs), and school meal programs are all running smoothly.
  • Food sales by assistance programs at 30 to 40 percent lower prices and Malian cereal exports have more or less stabilized food prices on formal markets. As a result, prices for imported foodstuffs (rice and wheat) are not appreciably higher than at the same time last year. On the contrary, with the influx of Malian crops, there will be a steady seasonal decline in coarse grain prices (by 33 percent in the case of sorghum) in rainfed farming areas between January and March. Prices for these crops are still well above the average for the last four years (by between four and 12 percent). Most difficulties with access to these crops stem from the lower seasonal incomes of poor households.
  • Seasonal income (between January and March), generated largely by farm labor in Mali and odd jobs in urban areas, is declining. Stock sales are limiting the need for labor in farming-related activities (such as threshing and winnowing), while the climate of insecurity in Mali has limited the number of seasonal migrant workers (which has merely doubled, when it might have tripled or quadrupled), most of whom are concentrated in areas of Mali close to the Mauritanian border. In addition, the labor surplus in urban areas is making it more difficult to find work or to generate income in an already saturated informal sector. Thus, contrary to our previous assumptions, these households will fail to generate near-average levels of seasonal income.
  • Livestock prices are rising in line with seasonal trends. This year, however, prices are unusually high, fueled by demand from Malian farmers purchasing animals for the building of herds. However, only middle-income and better-off households are profiting from these higher prices since, in this case, there is little demand for goats, which make up most of the herd in poor households.
Assumptions

The most likely local food security scenario for the period from January through June 2014 described below was established based on the following general assumptions:

  • Poor households will continue to be forced to resort to purchasing their food supplies until the next harvest in September.
  • Pastoral conditions will not meet the needs of local livestock between April and June. At the very least, there will be average levels of milk production through March, followed by declining rates of production between April and June.
  • Trends in pastoral conditions will also affect the physical condition of livestock, driving down prices between April and June in rural areas, where poor households not yet reaping the benefits of seasonal labor migration will be forced to sell their animals in order to buy food.
  • Short-term seasonal labor migration beginning in January, three months earlier than usual, has not yet had any major income effects other than reducing the amount of food purchases in the household. This will continue to be the case through March, which is expected to cut annual migration wages between April and June approximately in half.
  • The seasonal decline in wheat prices will make this substitute food affordable for poor households. However, the smooth flow of cross-border trade (with Mali) will ensure the availability of sorghum, limiting any recourse to wheat.
  • There will be regular market supplies of the most consumed imported staple foods in this area (sorghum, maize, rice, wheat, sugar, tea, and oil). The recent hike in fuel prices is not expected to trigger any sharp rises in the prices of imported foods. There will be a longer than usual period of market dependence, but poor households will be able to continue to take advantage of the low prices of BS and SAVS programs.
  • Incomes will continue to be well below-average, with most Mauritanians working outside the country concentrated in areas close to home for fear of reprisals, creating a labor surplus in these areas expected to translate into wage cuts and lower overall incomes.
  • According to all indications, social assistance programs should function normally.
Most likely food security outcomes

Poor households will continue to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity outcomes between January and March. Without sufficient cereal production to meet their food needs, they will be forced to resort to market purchase four months earlier than usual, hampered by sharply reduced incomes. The deterioration in pastoral conditions will limit their access to milk and reduce the market value of their animals (due to their poor physical condition). However, the low food prices in BS and SAVS programs should help contain the erosion in their purchasing power. These conditions will produce Crisis levels of food insecurity (Phase 3, IPC 2.0) between April and June in Ould Yengé department, where migrant remittances (the main source of seasonal income) are not expected to suffice to offset shortfalls in production and other income and give poor households regular, adequate access to commercially marketed foodstuffs.

Western reaches of agropastoral Livelihood Zone 7

This Livelihood Zone includes northern and eastern Gorgol, northern Brakna and western Assaba. Approximately 60 percent of the population consists of poor farming-oriented agropastoral households currently suffering the effects of large shortfalls in rainfed crop production. On average, these crops meet 30 percent of their food needs and their sale accounts for 20 percent of their income. They purchase 35 percent of their food supplies on the market between March and July, mostly with cash income from short-term seasonal labor migration (which accounts for 40 percent of their annual income) and through in-kind loans (20 percent) from local traders, which are repaid in kind at harvest time when terms are most advantageous.

Current situation
  • After the poor production from rainfed crops, the failure of food-recession crops (in lowland and dam areas) due largely to infestations of stalk borers has left poor households with little food stocks, which normally last them through April/May. With the severe damage to flood-recession crops from stalk borers, current production forecasts put output at less than a quarter of the average in spite of the 20 to 25 percent larger than average areas planted in these crops at the beginning of the season. Harvests, which were not even scheduled to get underway until the end of January, are already over in certain areas, since only crops planted in October in highland areas were able reach maturity before being attacked by stalk borers. As a result, poor households which, on average, produce approximately 1.6 to two metric tons of crops, harvested a mere 80 to 100 kg of crops this year at best, with more than three quarters of their fields yielding no crops whatsoever.
  • Earnings from farm labor between October and November were 30 to 40 percent larger than average with the high demand for farm labor for the rapid planting of large flood-irrigated areas, but there will be virtually no income from harvesting, transportation, and crop processing activities between February and March (which generate over 60 percent of household income from farm labor).
  • Young people had left the area for neighboring cities (Kaédi and M’Bout), Nouakchott, Nouadhibou and Zouerate, or Senegal by as early as December to look for seasonal work. However, their families have not yet received any remittances of either food or cash.
  • Most daily income is generated by sales of hay. The volume of sales is still well above-average in the central and eastern reaches of agropastoral Livelihood Zone 7, where a cartload of straw sells for between 4500 and 6000 MRO depending on its size.
  • Sales of wood are severely limited by contolled surveillance and the fear of punishment if caught by Ministry of Environment agents. There has been little movement in the price of a sack of charcoal, which has gone from 1400 MRO in 2013 to only 1500 MRO, though the supply charcoal for sale is already down by more than 75 percent.
  • With the poor harvests of flood-recession crops, sorghum prices are at a record seasonal high (900 MRO/moud, or approximately 225 MRO/kg) in agropastoral areas of Monguel and northeastern Brakna. The unit price of sorghum ranged from 350 to 400 MRO/moud at the same time last year, falling as low as 300 MRO at harvest time (in early February). Current prices in the River Valley (on the Boghé market) and in the western reaches of the agropastoral Livelihood Zone (on the Magta Lahjar market) are four to 12 percent above the five-year average.
  • The average harvests of lowland maize crops in M’Bout department have tempered rises in the unit price of sorghum in this area, which fluctuates between 600 and 700 MRO. In fact, there is little demand for sorghum, since poor households are large consumers of maize. Farmers selling their sorghum crops are forced to accept the low prices imposed by cereal traders, though everyone is expecting a steep rise in sorghum prices once supplies of maize crops are depleted in February.
  • The cowpea harvest, which is still in progress, is also poor. In fact, at only approximately 30 percent of the the 2013 harvest and half the average, it is the smallest harvest in five years. Cowpeas are a substitute for meat in the diets of poor households in this agropastoral area, as well as an important source of income. Unit prices per moud are already as high as 2000 MRO, compared with only 600 MRO at the same time last year, which was a bumper year.
  • Pastoral conditions in the northwestern reaches of this agropastoral area are severely degraded due to the poor distribution of rainfall (in northern and northeastern Brakna and in Monguel department in Gorgol). As a result, the physical condition of local animals is deteriorating. Conditions in the rest of this area (extending from M’Bout department in Gorgol to Assaba and Guidimakha) are still generally satisfactory, where stocking rates in rangeland areas are average to low with the departure of the transhumant herds of large pastoralists for seasonal grazing lands in southern Guidimakha and Mali. With the damage to pasturelands in the Valley from transhumant herds out of Senegal, large pastoralists in this part of the area were also forced to push up their departure for seasonal grazing lands in Gorgol. As a result, there is already heavy pressure on pastures in the southern reaches of this agropastoral zone between Wadjio (some twenty or so kilometers east of Kaédi) and the northern reaches of Maghama department. The areas most affected by the presence of transhumant herds at this stage in the season are the southwestern reaches of this agropastoral area and the River Valley.
  • Prices for livestock will continue to rise through the end of March, but seasonal drops in prices between April and June will put them below their current level (by between 9.45 and 11.17 percent based on figures for 2010 and 2013, respectively). This is supported by the pastoral conditions in this agropastoral area, which are similar to conditions in 2010.
  • Many families are still buying their food supplies from BS and SAVS programs, though certain households short on cash admit having already gone back to taking loans from local traders against future remittances or upcoming harvests for lack of the money with which to pay for their purchases until June (there are no credit sales by the BS program).
Assumptions

The most likely local food security scenario for the period from January through June 2014 described below was established based on the following general assumptions:

  • With the failure of flood-recession crops, household cereal stocks will last only two months, compared with an average of four to five months, which would take them into April. Without these crops from on-farm production, poor households will continue to rely on market purchasing to meet their food needs. They will resort to purchasing food on the market by February, two to three months sooner than usual.
  • Pastoral conditions, which had limited herd movements through January, are deteriorating under pressure from transhumant herds from Senegal and the western part of the country. With the departure of transhumant herds for seasonal grazing lands, as usual, there will be no milk production from cattle and sheep. Only households with goats and camels will have a supply of milk.
  • An influx of transhumant herds from northern pasture-short areas where light cold-season rains precluded sufficient pasture production to keep livestock herds from leaving is now extremely likely. The poor pastoral conditions in this area will reduce seasonal demand for pastoral labor between January and June. Transhumant herds will not remain long in this area and, thus, will not require the hiring of local labor.
  • The current large sales of straw are not expected to continue beyond the end of February with the influx of transhumant herds from western Mauritania and Senegal. In time, straw supplies in near-by farming areas will be depleted, making it necessary to travel longer distances.  The end result will be a below-average volume of sales.
  • Sales of wood and charcoal generally stretch from March to June. There will be much fewer sales of wood and charcoal than usual with the limited numbers of wooded areas and the surveillance by Environmental Ministry agents
  • Short-term seasonal labor migration will begin three months early, but its spin-off effects will be weaker than usual due to the difficulty of finding work in urban areas of the country and Mali.
  • Commercial imports and humanitarian assistance and the smooth flow of cross-border trade will ensure regular, adequate market supplies of imported foodstuffs.
  • The 10 percent hike in fuel prices in October in line with seasonal price trends for the past three years will trigger a proportional rise in prices for foodstuffs shipped to and sold on domestic markets by January, as well as in transportation costs for both passengers and freight.
  • Coarse grain prices (prices for sorghum, millet, and maize) will remain slightly elevated between January and March. However, any rises in prices will be in line with normal seasonal trends and will be tempered by Malian exports and by good wheat availability, which is the main substitute cereal for poor households. The escalation in prices will speed up between April and June but will stay in line with average price trends, with markets expected to continue to receive shipments of imported cereal from Mali.
  • Prices for wheat and rice will also steadily climb between April and June, by close to 11.9 percent in the case of wheat and 12.9 percent in the case of imported rice. In fact, the increasingly limited availability of local rice (with harvests of “winter” rice crops over since November/early December and harvests of hot off-season rice crops not scheduled to begin until June) will heighten demand for imported rice. In addition to the growing demand for wheat from poor households, for which it is the main substitute cereal of choice, there will also be a demand for wheat from mainly urban pastoralists, which could be further heightened by demand from rural pastoralists as the lean season continues in pastoral areas.
  • Terms of trade will stay in favor of pastoralists, but will be gradually eroded by the normal decline in the prices of livestock with the deterioration in their physical condition and the heavy seasonal sales in rural areas for the purchasing of animal feed. However, this mostly involves medium and large-scale pastoralists and should not significantly affect household income, with these households generally making enough sales to meet family needs for the duration of their period of transhumance. Poor households with only a few head of stock are rarely involved in these seasonal migratory movements.
Most likely food security outcomes

The failure of flood-recession crops will reduce the food stocks of poor households, who will be forced to rely on market purchasing to meet their food needs. The lower prices of livestock and limited flow of other income between January and March will make it difficult for them to meet their food needs without neglecting their nonfood needs, creating Stressed levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 2) among poor households. This will continue to be the case through the end of June since, even with the help of expected migrant labor remittances between April and June, the only way to maintain regular, adequate food access through SAVS and BS programs will be to increase their sales of livestock, which will stress their main livelihood.

Events that Can Change the Outlook

 

Area

Event

Impact on food security conditions

Nationwide

 

Rise in the world market prices of substitute cereals (wheat and rice)

Sharp rise in food prices, curtailing the food access of poor households

Long-term disruption in cross-border trade

Sharp rise in coarse grain prices and reversal of current trends in terms of trade

Livelihood None 7, agropastoral

Long period of transhumance

Sizeable incomes for poor households laboring in pastoral activities (with a longer presence of transhumant herds)

 

Livelihood None 9, rainfed cultivation

Restriction of short-term seasonal labor migration to Mali

Loss or sharp reduction in migration income from that country, main destination of seasonal migrant workers

Suspension of Malian cereal exports.

Unusually sharp rise in prices for coarse grains, the main dietary staple for poor households

Shutdown of government-subsidized shops (BS) between January and June

Recourse by poor households to formal markets, where they will be forced to buy food at going prices after being accustomed to pay 30 to 40 percent lower prices

Lull in demand for Mauritanian livestock in Senegal and Mali

Decline in prices for livestock, reducing income from livestock sales and creating unfavorable terms of trade, forcing households to increase sales to meet their food needs and, thus, posing a high risk of damage to one of their main sources of food (milk and meat), which is also their main source of income

 

Sobre El Desarrollo De Escenarios

Para proyectar los resultados de seguridad alimentaria en un período de seis meses, FEWS NET desarrolla una serie de supuestos sobre eventos probables, sus efectos, y las posibles respuestas de varios actores. FEWS NET analiza estos supuestos en el contexto de las condiciones actuales y los medios de vida locales para desarrollar escenarios estimando los productos de seguridad alimentaria. Típicamente, FEWS NET reporta el escenario más probable. Para conocer más, haga clic aqui.

About FEWS NET

La Red de Sistemas de Alerta Temprana contra la Hambruna es un proveedor de primera línea de alertas tempranas y análisis sobre la inseguridad alimentaria. Creada por la USAID en 1985 con el fin de ayudar a los responsables de tomar decisiones a prever crisis humanitarias, FEWS NET proporciona análisis asentados en evidencia sobre unos 35 países. Entre los integrantes del equipo ejecutor figuran la NASA, NOAA, USDA y el USGS, así como Chemonics International Inc. y Kimetrica. Lea más sobre nuestro trabajo.

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