Perspectiva de seguridad alimentaria

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes expected in the conflict areas of Liptako Gourma and Ménaka

Febrero 2020

Febrero - Mayo 2020

Junio - Septiembre 2020

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

Países presenciales:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Países de monitoreo remoto:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

Mensajes clave

  • Cereal production is 25.5 percent above average, and availability of food on markets is average, despite security incidents affecting flows to central and northern areas. In addition, average to below-average cereal prices are enabling the majority of households to remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity.

  • n the western Sahel region of Kayes, the pastoral lean season started early in February due to pasture deficits and atypical concentrations of livestock. Elsewhere, the pastoral lean season is expected to be typical overall, supporting average incomes for livestock herders thanks to average production and condition of animals.

  • Household access to cereals is generally average, due to average to above-average availability of own production (although low in some places), payments in kind, and average to below-average food prices in the main markets. Average to above-average terms of trade for goats/cereals are supporting average market access for livestock farming households.

  • An early lean season as a result of poor agricultural production in the western Sahel and Liptako Gourma, in addition to deteriorating livelihoods due to increased conflict and flooding, are leading poor households to make atypical use of labor and migration, reduce their non-food expenditure, and rely on humanitarian assistance or relatives to meet their food needs. As a result, they will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from February to April, and in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from May to September 2020.

National Overview

Current Situation

Agropastoral production: Production of off-season crops is considered average to above-average overall. Current harvests, particularly from market gardening, are providing average incomes for farming households and improving their diet. Planting of flood recession crops is continuing around the lakes and the production outlook is average, except in Kayes where the low level of water availability will reduce expected production by around 30 percent. The current harvests and rice planting in irrigated zones are providing income and food opportunities for poor households.

Livestock farming conditions are generally average in the country, with an expected normal lean season, except for in the western Sahel region of Kayes (Kayes, Nioro, Yélimané, Diéma) and in parts of the Mopti and Tombouctou regions, which are reporting various degrees of pasture deficit. Livestock are in good condition on the whole, thanks to the availability of pasture (although low in some places) and crop residues. Transhumant herds are returning as usual, albeit with some disruption in the conflict zones in central and northern parts of the country, particularly in Liptako Gourma, Ménaka and northern regions of Ségou (Niono, Macina). Dairy production is average to good due to good livestock farming conditions. The animal health situation is stable overall, and the cattle vaccination campaign launched in November is continuing with the support of certain humanitarian partners.

Fish production: The fishing season is developing as normal overall. The decline in river levels and the lifting of protected areas are contributing to an increase in catches. Fishing households are migrating to traditional fishing areas, with some disruption due to insecurity. 

Market operation and prices: The supply of cereals to the markets is generally sufficient. The arrival of new harvests and destocking by large producers and cereal growers are helping increase market supply to average levels, except in some markets in Liptako Gourma where recurring security incidents and population displacements are disrupting markets. As for the Kidal market, which is usually supplied by Algeria, flows are average and continue to be affected by traffic flows, which are linked to political measures in Algeria and the security situation.

In the regional capitals at the end of January, the price of the main cereal consumed was similar to the five-year average in Sikasso, Mopti, Koulikoro (-2 percent), Kidal (+3 percent) and Ségou (-1 percent); down in Mopti (-12 percent); and up in Kayes (+15 percent), Gao (+11 percent) and Tombouctou (+10 percent).

Livestock supply to markets is generally increasing, especially in the western Sahel area and in Liptako Gourma, where the early lean season due to poor livestock farming conditions and market disruption are encouraging more sales in the safer markets of neighboring areas, in order to limit losses through deaths and looting/theft. Restrictions on exports to Nigeria continue to affect the buoyancy of markets in Gao.

Livestock prices are average to above average in the southern agricultural markets, but average or below average in the Mopti, Gao and Tombouctou regions for large ruminants due to lower demand, which is reducing pastoral income for households. At the end of January, the price of goats (the animals most commonly sold by poor households) was 16 percent higher than the five-year average in Mopti, 15 percent higher in Tombouctou, 20 percent higher in Ménaka and 9 percent higher in Gao. This is supporting average to above-average farming income for affluent households who still have stock, unlike poor households who are limited by their very low stock due to high demand since the start of the crisis in 2012.

Accessibility: Cereal production 25.5 percent above the five-year average is supporting average availability in the country. Average to above-average availability of own production, produce given as payment in kind, lower cereal prices, and improved terms of trade for goats/millet to average or slightly above average in markets in pastoral areas (Figure 1) due to lower cereal prices, are enabling the majority of households to access food without major difficulties. However, the average to significant reduction in production in more than 30 percent of villages, particularly in the border strip with Burkina Faso due to insecurity, has adversely affected household access in these areas.

Food consumption: Food consumption is improving as usual, through average availability of new harvests of cereals and legumes, market garden products, and animal products (milk, cheese, meat). According to the September 2019 National Food Security and Nutrition Survey (ENSAN), 18.3 percent of the country had poor or borderline food consumption scores; this is expected to see the usual improvement and to be close to the February average for 2015 to 2019, which is around 13.5 percent. As for food diversity, it is highest for most households in this period, thanks to average access to diversified food. The hunger index is at the average level for the period: 8 percent moderate to serious hunger.

Population movement: The usual departures of able workers to the country’s urban centers and neighboring countries, in search of additional income, are under way as normal. In the central and northern areas of the country, ongoing security incidents are continuing to increase the departures of able workers and households to more secure areas. By mid-December, the number of displaced persons had been estimated at over 201,000, of whom 35.6 percent were in the Mopti region alone, where arrivals from Burkina Faso are also reported. Arrivals from Niger are reported in the Ménaka region. Returns of refugees continue to be recorded throughout the country. Food and non-food support is provided to displaced persons and returnees by the Government and humanitarian partners, through the Rapid Response Mechanism (RRM).

Security situation: The security situation continues to be marked by ongoing security incidents that are negatively affecting the socio-economic environment in the central and northern regions of the country, particularly in Liptako Gourma. This is resulting in below-average employment opportunities and income for households in the area. The loss of property and looting of livestock and current harvests associated with these security incidents are damaging livelihoods for households in the areas concerned. The resulting constraints to movement are making it difficult for humanitarian support to reach poor households in difficulty, thereby increasing their vulnerability to food insecurity and limiting the rebuilding of livelihoods that are vital to meeting their needs.

 

Assumptions

The most likely food security scenario from February to September 2020 is based on the following underlying assumptions regarding trends in nationwide conditions:

  • Rainfall: Discrepancies between forecast models for this period prevent any strong assumptions. The NMME model projects a fairly average situation, while the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI)is predicting deficits in the central and northern half of the country. While awaiting evidence over the coming months, we are opting for a timely start to the 2020 rainy season, starting in May in southern areas, June in central areas, and progressively later in more northern areas with the timely seasonal northward movement of the Intertropical Front. Cumulative rainfall is very likely to be close to average. However, good temporal and geographical distribution of rainfall will be essential for good agricultural production for the season starting in June 2020.
  • Water levels: Water is receding in the various rivers throughout the country. On 27 January 2020, river water levels were lower than last year’s levels over the same period, but above the multiannual average at most observation stations. The average cumulative rainfall expected according to weather forecasts will support average flow on the various rivers serving Mali, in both the Niger and Senegal river basins. Water in lakes will recede throughout the country and the start of the rains from June will support the replenishment of watering holes to an average to above-average level.
  • Off-season crops: Off-season crops, both market garden crops and rice – which is currently being replanted – are developing as normal. Production forecasts are generally average thanks to average water availability in ponds, lakes and rivers. The current average harvests for market garden crops, and those expected for off-season wheat in April and rice in June–July, will improve food availability and purchasing power for farming households.
  • Agricultural production: The normal onset of rains, and ongoing agricultural input support (seed, fertilizer) from the Government and partners, equipment distribution and hydro-agricultural developments, are expected to yield average to above-average harvests in the country from October 2020. However, insecurity will continue to affect agricultural activities in areas of community conflict. This will lead to localized declines in production, particularly in the north and center of the country.
  • Livestock movements and animal production: Herds are in the usual areas of concentration: in bourgou pastureland along the river and around crop residues and permanent watering holes (wells, ponds). The usual departure of herds toward winter concentration areas will be observed from June onward, owing to the onset of rains for the new season (June to September). Difficulties in accessing certain pastures in insecure areas will have a negative impact on the condition of animals. Improved livestock farming conditions from June will boost animal production.
  • Fishing: Catches for the current fishing season, which will continue until March/April, are average to above average at the various fishing grounds in the country. The lifting of protected areas and collective fishing activities from March to April will help raise catch levels for fishing households, before water levels rise again in June/July and reduce catches.

Other livelihood activities

  • Migration and population movements: The departure of able workers to the country’s urban centers, neighboring countries and gold-mining sites in the regions of Kayes, Koulikoro and Sikasso is under way. The average in-kind and cash resources sent from February to June, and/or brought back by migrant workers who will return from May/June, will help ease the situation of households during the agricultural lean season from June to September. Residual insecurity in central and northern parts of the country continues to cause population displacement. By the end of December, more than 201,000 people had been recorded. These movements will continue in line with security disruptions, particularly in the Liptako Gourma area.
  • Agricultural and non-agricultural labor: The usual non-agricultural labor and small trade activities between February and May, and those linked to the June to September agricultural season, will continue as normal in the country. The average income from such activities will enable poor households that depend on them to improve their purchasing power. However, in northern regions and central areas, insecurity will continue to negatively affect employment opportunities (construction, small trades, etc.), resulting in below-average incomes.

Markets and prices

  • Cereal prices: The usual depletion of stocks for small producers and demand for replenishment of community and institutional stocks from February/March will increase market demand. This will generate the seasonal price increase from April to September, but it will be less marked than in a typical year. The price trend for the main cereal (millet), which is above or similar to the average on the main markets, will continue until September.
  • Livestock prices: Livestock prices should remain average to above average due to good livestock farming conditions. The seasonal fall in prices in April due to the usual deterioration in the condition of livestock in the pastoral lean season will be observed until June. Despite the fall in prices, they will remain average to above average, except in some markets close to the conflict zones where the unusual increase in supply has contributed to lower livestock prices. Improved livestock conditions from July will help improve livestock prices. Despite improving, the terms of trade for livestock/cereal will remain close to the average in pastoral areas.

Other key factors

  • Institutional procurement: Institutional procurement – through national security stock replenishment by the National Office for Agricultural Products (OPAM) of approximately 50,000 megatons of millet/sorghum, and procurement by the World Food Programme (WFP) and other humanitarian agencies in 2020 under the National Response Plan – will be average to below average. This is due to intervention strategies based on cash transfers/coupons being favored over food distribution.
  • Security situation: The unstable security situation observed is likely to continue in the usual areas, particularly in the country's border strip with Burkina Faso and Niger (Liptako Gourma), due to the recurrence of community conflict, banditry and military operations. Disruptions to the movement of people and goods, and the resulting unusual displacement of persons, deaths and damage to livelihoods, will continue to be observed. The current negotiations and the strengthening of military patrols will help alleviate the difficulties of movement in the area.
  • Humanitarian action: Humanitarian food assistance will continue to be provided to displaced populations, under the Rapid Response Mechanism (RRM), and to food-insecure populations, particularly from June to September. The National Response Plan being prepared includes food assistance and resilience building for over 1 million people. Support in terms of agricultural inputs for the new agricultural year, and support for farmers in the form of animal feed and veterinary care in areas with a pasture deficit, is under way and/or planned. Support for reintegrating returning and repatriated populations will continue throughout the outlook period. These resilience-building programs will limit beneficiary populations’ use of negative coping strategies.

 

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

Overall average to above-average cereal availability in the country, and below-average to average prices of foodstuffs, are giving the majority of households average access to food, despite local pockets of lower production. Their own production (although low in some places), stock from in-kind and cash remuneration for harvesting, as well as average income from traditional agricultural and off-farm labor, are enabling the majority of poor households to access food without too much difficulty. The rate of 18.5 percent having a poor or borderline food consumption score in September 2019, compared to 20.5 percent in September 2018, is improving compared to the lean season and is close to the average level for February. As a result, most households in the country will be in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity phase between February and September 2020. The national rate of global acute malnutrition (GAM), classed as ‘Serious’ (10 percent) in the July 2019 Standardized Monitoring and Assessment of Relief and Transitions (SMART) survey, will deteriorate as usual from March/April due to food strategies, worsening hygiene conditions and the prevalence of respiratory and parasitic diseases from June to September.

However, the early depletion of stocks for households in the western Sahel area of Kayes and in places along the river in Gao and Tombouctou, due to the average to significant decline in agricultural production because of poor rainfall and pest damage, will make them more reliant on the market than usual for food supplies. The atypical use of migration, increased labor and above-average sales of livestock to raise generally lower incomes, will make poor households Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from March to September 2020. The same will apply to flood victims in other regions, who face difficulties both in meeting their food needs and in rebuilding their deteriorated livelihoods.

In insecure areas, particularly in the Liptako Gourma region, poor households with declining incomes (especially those in Bankass, Koro, Bandiagara, Douentza and Ménaka) will experience a marked deterioration in their livelihoods. This will limit their ability to adequately meet their food and non-food needs. The poor or borderline food consumption score will be above the average for the period, and the lack of livelihood protection will worsen. During this period of availability of own crops, below-average prices, local solidarity and support from the Government and humanitarian agencies, households will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from February to April. They will experience a more marked seasonal deterioration than usual from April onward. The use of negative coping strategies, already high in September 2019, and the longer than usual dependency on markets, especially for displaced households, will place them in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from May to September 2020.

 

Events that Might Change the Outlook

Area

Event

Impact on food security outcomes

National

Delayed and/or inadequate onset of rains in July–August

A delay in the onset of the rains would prolong the pastoral lean season more than usual, which could increase the risk of higher mortality due to deterioration in animal condition and, as a result, income. The delay in planting crops may negatively affect expected cereal production in September.

Pest damage to crops from April to September

Significant damage by grain-eating birds and caterpillars (armyworm and others) to off-season crops from February to June, and to rainfed crops from June to September, may reduce cereal availability in agricultural areas and lead to higher cereal prices.

Flooding due to heavy rains or high water level in rivers

Damage to crops and capital equipment in affected areas from July to September may negatively affect household livelihoods and reduce households’ ability to adequately meet their food needs.

Northern and central Mali

Intensification of market disruption due to insecurity

Heightened insecurity would further impact the economy in the affected areas, negatively affecting income, household livelihoods and market supply in the area.

Northern Mali (zone 2, 3, 4), Niger Delta (zone 6) and Sahel band (zone 13)

Significant bush fire damage to pastures from April to May

Bush fires habitually cause huge damage to pastures from February to May, resulting in early degradation of pasture land and difficulties in feeding livestock. The deterioration in the physical condition of livestock and in animal production would negatively affect the livelihoods of agropastoral households.

Sobre El Desarrollo De Escenarios

Para proyectar los resultados de seguridad alimentaria en un período de seis meses, FEWS NET desarrolla una serie de supuestos sobre eventos probables, sus efectos, y las posibles respuestas de varios actores. FEWS NET analiza estos supuestos en el contexto de las condiciones actuales y los medios de vida locales para desarrollar escenarios estimando los productos de seguridad alimentaria. Típicamente, FEWS NET reporta el escenario más probable. Para conocer más, haga clic aqui.

About FEWS NET

La Red de Sistemas de Alerta Temprana contra la Hambruna es un proveedor de primera línea de alertas tempranas y análisis sobre la inseguridad alimentaria. Creada por la USAID en 1985 con el fin de ayudar a los responsables de tomar decisiones a prever crisis humanitarias, FEWS NET proporciona análisis asentados en evidencia sobre unos 35 países. Entre los integrantes del equipo ejecutor figuran la NASA, NOAA, USDA y el USGS, así como Chemonics International Inc. y Kimetrica. Lea más sobre nuestro trabajo.

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