New harvests expected to improve area-level outcomes for insurgent-hit divisions from October

The harvesting of main season maize, groundnuts, and cowpea crops has started across the country’s northern zone, with red sorghum harvesting anticipated to begin fully from October through December. Although estimated below average, ongoing harvests are expected to increase households’ food availability and stabilize prices of newly harvested staples in Mayo-Tsanaga, Mayo-Sava et Logone-et-Chari divisions where Islamist violence persists.     Income from harvesting labor and crop sales is also expected to improve access to other food purchases in the market. Poor households in Mayo-Tsanaga, Mayo-Sava, and Logone-et-Chari divisions should see improvements from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes beginning October through January 2023.

Poor households in North-West and South-West regions will likely see their food consumption deteriorate during the coming months. Following another consecutive below-average season, grain stocks for most poor households are expected to run out by November, four to five months earlier than normal, increasing their reliance on market purchases amid high prices. Due to low purchasing power, more poor households from these regions are likely to start engaging in negative coping strategies like borrowing, reduction of meal frequencies, and portions indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from November 2022 through January 2023.

Most urban poor households living in Yaoundé and Douala do not have any own-produced cereal stocks and will continue to be market-dependent amid high prices of imported and processed food commodities, pushing household purchasing power further below normal levels. Some of these households will continue to engage in income-earning activities like charcoal/firewood sales and petty trade, with improved incomes expected from the typical increase in demand that characterizes the end-of-year and new year festive season. In addition, they are expected to benefit from a seasonal decline in prices of newly harvested crops through November and from minimum access to humanitarian food assistance, maintaining Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through January 2023.