Famine Early Warning Systems Network

At the national level

A number of factors are impacting the current growing season, in particular, the late start to the season, due to the dry spell in June; flooding in some western production areas in August; the decrease in cultivated areas and the abandonment of harvests in the north due to insecurity; the dry spells in September; and localized crop losses following prolonged rains. Agricultural production will therefore be below average throughout the country.

Cereal prices will remain 20 percent below the five-year average thanks to traders’ abundant stock and households’ reduced demand as a result of their access to new harvests.

The continued increase in the number of IDPs and their dependency on assistance will require the Government and market partners to increase their food purchases. Security stocks currently replenished to their usual level will not be sufficient to meet the needs of IDPs that have not been able to engage in production and of host households that continue to abandon their crops. This additional demand, combined with the localized decline in production, may lead to a rise in staple food prices to average or above-average levels following the harvest.

Increasingly large flows of IDPs to urban areas will put strong pressure on the demand for employment in these areas, where the economic situation is already marked by a slowdown of businesses and higher taxation. This lack of opportunity could increase migration to neighboring countries.

However, despite localized declines in production, households in more stable regions will have sufficient stocks to live as normal until May. During this period, most household income will come as usual from the sale of cash crops (sesame, groundnuts, cotton, cowpeas) and market garden crops, as well as from gold mining activities. These areas will therefore remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1)acute food insecurity  until May 2020.

Livelihood zones 8, 7 and 5

In these areas, livelihoods are usually based on transhumance and millet production in the north and livestock farming, sorghum production, market gardening and gold mining in the center and south. These areas are more affected by terrorist attacks and threats. Since the beginning of the year, the number of IDPs has increased on average 20 percent per month, especially in the provinces of Soum and Sanmatenga. During the second half of the year, the deteriorating security situation spread to the neighboring provinces of Loroum, Oudalan and Bam. Population movements are also limited in the provinces of Séno, Yagha, Namentenga, Gnagna and Komondjari.  At the beginning of October, the number of IDPs exceeded 20 percent of the population in several communes in these livelihood zones. In the Djibo commune, for example, the proportion of IDPs is 99 percent.

At the beginning of the season, agricultural activities had declined by around 70 percent in most communes in Soum province and by around 20–50 percent in neighboring communes. With incidents occurring almost daily since August, people are abandoning their fields and crops. In the north and northeast of the country, dry spells of two to three weeks were observed in September during the flowering phase, which is resulting in low crop yields. This rainfall deficit has also accelerated the deterioration of pastureland, thus limiting access to grazing. As a result, transhumance departures will occur earlier in December, rather than in February. The pastoral lean season may be more difficult from February onward, with livestock farmers having to increase purchases of agro-industrial by-products at markets.

In addition, populations that have been able to move with their livestock are forced to sell off their animals at the local markets of the receiving areas. At the Djibo market, the supply of goats increased by about 16 percent compared with the average. Despite the presence of domestic and foreign buyers at markets (Ghanaians and Ivorians), prices fell by 18 percent in September compared with the five-year average. With the continued flow of IDPs to urban centers, supplies are expected to increase in the coming months. Given the likely deterioration of animals’ physical condition during the pastoral lean season, prices are expected to further decline between February and May 2020.

Ongoing and planned food assistance until December in the form of food and cash is mostly distributed in more accessible urban centers. This assistance is expected to reach 487,167 IDPs and hosts, with 61,315 people receiving food or cash vouchers and 425,852 people receiving a food basket that covers 2,100 kcals. In the provinces most affected by insecurity (Soum, Loroum, Oudalan, Bam and Sanmatenga), the assistance covers 100 percent of IDPs, which in terms of the entire country, represents 21 percent for Soum, 30 percent for Sanmatenga and 11 percent on average for the other provinces. Poor harvests and assistance will place IDPs and host households in Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) acute food insecurity between October and January. Beyond January, the loss of household assets, crop depletion and limited access to income sources will continue to negatively impact the livelihoods of IDPs and host populations. In addition, the closure or slowdown of health centers, limited access to areas for adequate implementation of programs to prevent malnutrition, and the deterioration of household food consumption are likely to increase the prevalence of malnutrition above the SMART thresholds observed from September to October 2018 (8.9 percent in the Centre-Nord region and 12.6 in the Sahel region).

Without income and necessary assistance, IDPs and host populations in the provinces of Soum, Loroum, Oudalan, Sanmatenga and Bam will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3)acute food insecurity  or worse between February and May.  In neighboring provinces (Séno, Yagha, Gnagna, Komondjari), Stressed (IPC Phase 2)acute food insecurity  or worse may be observed during the same period.