Famine Early Warning Systems Network

National

Rainfall has been generally satisfactory in the country. Cereal production is projected at 16 percent above the five-year average (Sector Studies and Statistics Service [DGESS]/Ministry of Agriculture and Hydro-agricultural Development [MAAH]). However, FEWS NET projects that final production could be average in view of reduced production area in areas most affected by insecurity and the negative impacts of pockets of drought, flooding, and input access difficulties. According to joint assessments made in October by the early warning system, these various hazards and deficiencies have negatively impacted production in 91 communes, or about ¼ of the country’s communes.

The availability of water and fodder resources is good and ensures animals’ good physical condition. This should allow for a generally typical pastoral lean season between March and June. Dry season activities (market gardening) have started around water sources. However, the level of household debt due to below-average incomes during 2020, losses experienced during the past off-season, and insecurity limits the number of producers and cultivated land compared to normal. As was the case last season, foreign buyers’ limited access to production sites due to insecurity could negatively affect producers’ prices and contribute to below-average income between December and May.

Home-grown crops remain the primary source of household food and income. Market supply is improving with farmers’ stocks. Cereal prices are nevertheless higher than last year due to additional demand from displaced populations: 20 percent for maize, 15 percent for sorghum, and 30 percent for millet. However, they remain stable compared to the five-year average with the exception of a 10-percent increase for millet, as its market supply remains low. In general, cereal prices could follow the average seasonal trend until May due to typical household demand during the period, but will still remain above last year’s prices.

As for cash crops, the purchase price set for cotton producers has fallen by about 10 percent because of difficulties in sending stocks to outside markets.  On the other hand, for cowpeas and groundnuts, the producer prices are 12 and 14 percent higher than average, respectively.

The resurgence of community transmission of COVID-19 at the national level and in other countries in the region is hindering normal resumption of economic activities. The tourism and hospitality sectors continue to operate on a limited basis. Land borders remain closed and tighter controls limit seasonal migration, especially to coastal countries. People in the informal sector, which accounts for 89 percent of non-agricultural employment, are particularly vulnerable due both to declining incomes and to the general increase in consumer prices. Compared to October 2019, inflation is 4.6 percent (National Statistics and Population Institute [INSD], Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices [HICP], October 2020) due to increasing prices for fuel (firewood and charcoal), private school tuition, and food prices.

As a result of their own production, most poor households in calmer areas will remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity until May. On the other hand, declining incomes and purchasing power will continue to negatively affect the livelihoods of the poor in the informal sector, particularly in urban centers. Less than 20 percent of the urban population will remain exposed to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity.

Livelihood zones 8, 7, 5, and 9 (Sahel, Centre-Nord, Nord, and Est regions)

Since October, terrorist groups’ attacks and threats of retaliation against the population have multiplied in the area. They primarily affect the far north border areas and cause new population displacements toward commune capitals including Déou, Markoye, Gorom-Gorom, and Djibo.

Insecurity has severely disrupted agricultural activities. As a result, harvests are 20 to 50 percent below average in several communes. According to the results of an assessment conducted among 67 percent of IDPs (Permanent Secretariat [SP]/National Council for Emergency Relief and Rehabilitation [CONASUR], October 2020), agriculture, which usually represents the primary source of income for 91 percent of IDPs, currently accounts for barely 21 percent of their income, and 61 percent of IDPs report having no income-generating activities.

Improved security on the route linking the capital and the main market in the province of Soum (Djibo) helps supply this market with basic food products and encourages foreign livestock buyers to visit it.  The price of millet is slightly higher (12 percent) than average. Prices are generally stable in the other markets in the area, though increases of 22 percent for millet in Arbin and 26 percent for sorghum in Kaya are noted.

The supply of animals in the livestock markets in Djibo and Dori improved to reach approximately average levels.  Demand is also satisfactory, with at least 80 percent of animals presented sold due to the additional demand for the year-end holiday season.  This increase in demand and animals’ good physical condition allows near-average selling prices in the Dori market, especially for small ruminants, while prices are up 19 percent for rams and 53 percent for goats, respectively, in the Djibo market compared to the average. Terms of trade are stable in Dori and 37 percent better than average in the Djibo market. The situation in accessible primary markets may obscure the reality for secondary markets that are less frequented by buyers and have lower supply. Terms of trade in these areas are expected to be unfavorable for breeders due to lower animal prices and higher prices for basic food products.

Fodder sales are a source of income for poor households around livestock markets. However, due to lower demand and higher supply, selling prices fell by half compared to last year. Above-average fodder and water availability will encourage normal transhumance departures from February, despite reduced accessibility for certain grazing areas. However, migratory cattle are likely to be concentrated in the southern border regions considering the difficulties entering coastal countries due to tighter security controls in these countries.

The results of the Standardized Monitoring and Assessment of Relief and Transition (SMART) survey (Nutrition Division [DN], October 2020) indicate a concerning nutritional situation in the provinces of Bam and Namentenga and a critical situation in the province of Séno. The main reasons include the declining food and livelihood situation, limited access to health care, and inadequate hygiene and sanitation conditions in areas with a high presence of IDPs.

Notwithstanding new crops, markets and food assistance are households’ main food sources. Food assistance planned for November is expected to reach 23 percent of the population in Soum, 40 percent in Sanmatenga, and 25 percent in Bam. However, since the beginning of the year, an average of 68 percent of assistance has been delivered monthly due to insecurity. In this case, it will be barely enough to promote Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) acute food insecurity, in the province of Sanmatenga only.  In other provinces where IDPs represent at least 20 percent of the population (Soum, Séno, Oudalan), Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity affects both IDPs and host populations. Facing inadequate and irregular assistance, IDPs and poor host households adopt strategies such as reducing their daily consumption, borrowing, and substituting preferred foods with cheaper products.   Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity will extend to the provinces of Bam, Namentenga, Loroum, and Yagha between February and May due to early stock depletion, seasonal price increases, and increased adoption of these strategies.