Actualización de la perspectiva de seguridad alimentaria

Good harvest forecast for the 2016/2017 growing season

Agosto 2016

Agosto - Septiembre 2016

Burkina Faso August 2016 Food Security Projections for August to September

Octubre 2016 - Enero 2017

Burkina Faso August 2016 Food Security Projections for October to January

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Mínima
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Mínima
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Mínima
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

Países presenciales:
1: Mínima
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Países de monitoreo remoto:
1: Mínima
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

Mensajes clave

  • The increasingly intense monsoon activity since the second dekad of July has helped create good conditions for the pursuit of farming activities and offset the negative effects of the reported pockets of drought in certain areas at the beginning of the season. However, heavy downpours have caused flooding problems and property damage, and led to losses of human lives in certain areas.

  • The ongoing usual lean season is marked by average to good cereal availability. Millet and sorghum prices are on par with the five-year average and maize prices are slightly above-average. Prices for animals in livestock markets are above the five-year average and terms of trade are in favor of pastoralists. 

  • In general, households are experiencing a normal lean season, with access to at least two meals a day. The social programs mounted by the government and its partners, particularly cereal sales at subsidized prices and cash transfer programs, are helping to mitigate the effects of the lean season on the country’s most vulnerable households.

CURRENT SITUATION

The 2016/2017 agropastoral season is marked by an early to normal start of the rains in all parts of the country. Cumulative seasonal rainfall totals for the period from April 1st through August 20, 2016 ranged from 233.6 mm with 14 days of rain in Baraboulé, in Soum province, to 832 mm with 51 days of rain in Pô, in Nahouri province. In general, these cumulative rainfall totals were close to or above-normal (compared with the average for 1981 through 2010) in most parts of the country with the exception of certain parts of the Eastern, Southwestern, Cascades, Hauts-Bassins, and Boucle du Mouhoun regions, where there were reports of small rainfall deficits. However, such deficits are not significantly affecting crop growth and development.

Subsequent downpours created numerous flooding problems, causing property damage and resulting in a number of human fatalities in several locations. Assessments conducted by CONASUR (the National Emergency Assistance and Rehabilitation Agency) in late July 2016 put the total number of flood victims at 3,636, with 2,636 people left homeless, mainly in the municipalities of Markoye (500), Dargo (573), Kaya (163), Ouagadougou (2000), and Piéla (400). In addition, more than 1,200 hectares of crops were damaged by the August floods in parts of the Boucle du Mouhoun region.

Farming activities are making normal progress with the reported good rainfall conditions. However, there are large differences in planting rates and the progress of crop maintenance work from one province to another. While, in general, the current growing season seems to be making better progress than last season, it is still reportedly lagging slightly behind schedule in certain parts of Nayala, Kossi, Sourou, Noumbiel, Sissili, and Sanguié provinces.

There is average to good cereal availability on all markets. Cereal supplies are relatively good and deemed to be about-normal. Most market supplies at this time are coming from trader inventories, which are still at relatively good levels. On the other hand, on-farm inventories are steadily shrinking and account for less than 30 percent of market supplies. Cereal demand is close to normal for the lean season.  

Market prices for staple foodstuffs are relatively affordable for most households at this time. Maize prices are above the five-year average by 13 percent on wholesale markets and seven percent on retail markets. In contrast, prices for millet and sorghum are relatively stable.

 The physical condition of livestock has improved with the good availability of pasture and water. Pastoralists not previously forced to sell off their animals at bargain prices are benefiting from current price levels above the five-year average. Prices for small ruminants (male sheep and goats) and bulls, for example, in major livestock markets (Djibo, Dori, and Gorom-Gorom) in pastoral areas are above the five-year average by approximately 20 percent and 16 percent, respectively.

In general, poor households are experiencing a normal lean season and following more or less their usual strategies for obtaining food. Current available supplies of wild plant foods such as the leaves of baobab trees are helping to improve their diet. Their sources of income include sales of poultry and firewood, market gardening activities, and sales of small ruminants. The social programs mounted by the government and its partners such as cereal sales at subsidized prices and cash transfer programs are also helping to mitigate the effects of the lean season on the country’s poorest households.

 

UPDATED ASSUMPTIONS

The present situation has not affected the assumptions used by FEWS NET as basis for developing the most likely scenario for the period from June 2016 through January 2017.

PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH JANUARY 2017

Based on the status of the growing season and the good condition of crops, there should be a favorable outcome for the current season. This brighter outlook could encourage farmers and traders to put their remaining cereal stocks up for sale on the market, which would help improve cereal availability and facilitate staple food access for poor households.

With a good end-of-season as predicted in seasonal rainfall forecasts (PRESAS), national cereal production is expected to surpass the five-year average. In addition, this year’s market gardening activities scheduled to get underway in mid-October will, no doubt, be ramped up in view of the good water availability. This could generate substantial amounts of income for these farmers.

Thus, there could continue to be Minimal (IPC Phase 1) levels of acute food insecurity in all parts of the country between now and the end of the outlook period in January 2017.

 

Sobre Este Informe

Este informe mensual cubre las condiciones actuales, así como los cambios a la perspectiva proyectada para la inseguridad alimentaria en este país. Este actualiza trimestralmente la Perspectiva de Seguridad Alimentaria de FEWS NET. Conozca más sobre nuestro trabajo.

About FEWS NET

La Red de Sistemas de Alerta Temprana contra la Hambruna es un proveedor de primera línea de alertas tempranas y análisis sobre la inseguridad alimentaria. Creada por la USAID en 1985 con el fin de ayudar a los responsables de tomar decisiones a prever crisis humanitarias, FEWS NET proporciona análisis asentados en evidencia sobre unos 35 países. Entre los integrantes del equipo ejecutor figuran la NASA, NOAA, USDA y el USGS, así como Chemonics International Inc. y Kimetrica. Lea más sobre nuestro trabajo.

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