Cameroon

During the first quarter of 2023, the price of imported staples such as rice, wheat flour, and vegetable oil remained stable but moderately to significantly higher than 2022 levels and the five-year average, primarily due to the Ukraine crisis. Prices of locally produced cereals also remained higher than typical seasonal levels. For instance, in most markets in the Far North region, sorghum and maize prices between March and April 2023 reached 35 percent above 2022 levels and more than 50 percent above average, reflecting significantly low supplies amid atypically high demand due to consecutive years of below-average production. The recent increase in fuel and transportation costs also contributes to elevated prices of imported and locally produced food commodities.

In the Northwest, Southwest, and Far North regions, food price increases are eroding purchasing power for market-dependent households already vulnerable to food price shocks due to years of extended conflict. Coupled with below-average incomes, these factors are widening food consumption deficits and forcing households to resort to negative coping strategies indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

In the Northwest, Southwest, and Far North regions, emergency food assistance needs are expected to continue increasing throughout the scenario period, especially among displaced households, due to persisting conflict and civil insecurity, exacerbated by seasonal flooding and high commodity prices. Needs are estimated to peak around May/June, coinciding with the peak of the lean season in the country's southern zone.

In July or August, outcomes will likely improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) for some households in the Northwest and Southwest regions as new harvests boost food availability and income from agricultural labor and crop sales. Nevertheless, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will likely persist in worst-off areas such as Menchum, Momo, and Lebialem divisions, where significantly low production is expected. In Mayo-Sava, Mayo-Tsanaga, and Logone-et-Chari divisions, low purchasing power amid faster depleting household stocks will continue driving Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes and negative coping. As harvests begin in September, improved food supplies are expected to help households in this zone recover from the harsh impacts of the lean season.