Malawi

Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security outcomes are likely to persist through September in most southern Malawi districts due to the impacts of Tropical Cyclone Freddy, which occurred between March 11 and 13, 2023, and subsequent above-average rainfall. The cyclone caused significant damage to infrastructure, loss of life, injury, and displacement of over 659,000 people. Additionally, more than 200,000 hectares of cropland were destroyed. In contrast, households in central and northern Malawi are expected to experience Minimal/None (IPC Phase1) food security outcomes during the outlook period. This is because they are likely to access adequate food and income from their own-produced agricultural commodities.

The 2022/23 production season in Malawi will likely be below average, particularly for the maize crop, which contributes over 70 percent of the national food requirements. In conjunction with reduced access to fertilizers, the impacts of Tropical Cyclone Freddy are likely to significantly reduce crop harvests, especially in southern Malawi, the worst cyclone-affected area. FEWS NET predicts that maize production at the national level will be about 20 to 30 percent below average, which is likely to exacerbate food insecurity in the affected areas.

Malawi's economic growth has continued to be slow, which is affecting both the macro- and micro-economy. Inflation has continued to be high, with the April 2023 annual inflation rate standing at 28.8 percent, up from 15.7 percent in April 2022. Despite the start of the tobacco marketing season, Malawi is still facing a foreign currency deficit, which is only enough to cover one month of imports, compared to the set minimum threshold of three months. The worsening economic situation has led to the rising costs of goods and food commodities, which is further compounded by low fuel imports, leading to high fuel prices and periodic nationwide shortages. The fuel shortages are driving higher transportation costs and increased production costs, exerting upward pressure on the prices of food and other goods and likely restricting access to food and income for poor and very poor households.

Throughout the outlook period, food prices are likely to continue to trend higher than the previous year and the five-year average. Given below-average carryover stocks from the previous season and anticipated reduced production this season, supplies in markets are likely to be below average. Early reliance on market purchases by households that produced nothing or had all their crops washed away by flooding will atypically increase demand, thereby putting upward pressure on prices. FEWS NET price projections indicate that maize prices will range from 500 MWK to 1,100 MWK per kilogram from May to September 2023, which is more than double or three times higher than prices at the same time last year and the five-year average. These high prices will significantly impact household food access and consumption, particularly for poor and very poor households.