Uganda

In bimodal areas, average to above-average cumulative rainfall in early March had favorable impacts on most crop fields, particularly in central and southern Uganda. However, dry spells in late March and early April, particularly in northern and eastern Uganda, and forecasted below-average rainfall in May and June will likely impact the flowering, grain filling, and maturation stages for cereals and legumes and potentially drive below-average production in localized areas. Consequently, an increasing number of poor households in greater northern and eastern bimodal areas of Uganda are likely to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes ahead of the harvest in June/July, as well as inadequate food availability and access through September. Across other rural bimodal areas, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to persist through September 2023.

In April, staple food prices remained higher than last year and the five-year average due to declining food stocks amid sustained regional demand. Staple exports to Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, and Rwanda continue to exert upward pressure on price levels for both cereals and legumes. Below-average production prospects from first-season production are unlikely to restore national food stocks, and global price trends will likely continue driving atypically high inflation. As a result, food and non-food prices are expected to remain elevated. Retail prices for maize and beans are roughly 5 to 55 percent higher than at the same time in 2022 and 20 to 50 percent above the five-year average. Meanwhile, sorghum prices increased by 10 to 15 percent in March and April in Nakapiripirit, Napak, and Kotido markets in Karamoja due to high prices in source markets, tight supplies, and households’ increased reliance on market purchases during the peak lean season. Below-average household incomes overall are constraining food access, leading to widening food consumption gaps consistent with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes or worse.

Uganda’s refugee population is expected to increase throughout the projection period due to continued conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and South Sudan. Constrained access to seeds, erratic rainfall in northern Uganda settlements, and increasingly limited access to land for cultivation are expected to drive below-average food production prospects and poor food consumption outcomes. Given inadequate humanitarian food assistance ration sizes, reduced income-earning opportunities, and above-average food prices, refugees are likely facing Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes, while an increasing number of refugees are likely facing slight to moderate food consumption gaps and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.