Sudán del Sur

The lean season has begun early for many poor households, particularly in areas affected by the protracted impacts of multiple years of flooding and conflict, combined with persistent poor macroeconomic conditions and high and rising food and non-food prices. The relative lull in conflict in some areas has facilitated humanitarian food assistance deliveries over the past few months, helping to mitigate extreme outcomes in Pibor, Canal/Pigi, and Fangak, where some households had been previously assessed in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). Nonetheless, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes with pockets of households in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) persist in Panyikang and Fashoda of Upper Nile given the extensive erosion of livelihoods from compounding shocks and insecurity that is interfering with household mobility and assistance delivery.

During the upcoming rainy season from June to September, renewed flooding and insecurity are likely to disrupt trade flows, markets, and humanitarian deliveries leading to an increase in populations facing large food consumption gaps, with particular concern in areas of northern Jonglei and southern Upper Nile. However, planned food assistance is likely to mitigate the severity of outcomes in many counties of Jonglei, Upper Nile, Warrap, and Unity states. At the peak of the lean season (July and August), up to 60 percent of the country’s population will need humanitarian assistance.

Key conflict hotspot areas of South Sudan have been relatively calm since January 2023, albeit periodically marred by cattle raids in Upper Nile region and farmer-herder conflict in the Equatorias. However, the outbreak of conflict in Sudan has led to a large influx of mostly South Sudanese returnees (nearly 25,000 returnees as of the end of April) with the figure expected to rise as the conflict continues. The conflict is expected to further reduce cross-border trade flows from Sudan and stretch humanitarian response capacity in border areas of Upper Nile, Unity, and Northern Barh el Ghazal, where assistance needs are anticipated to rise.

FEWS NET assesses that a credible risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) persists in northern Jonglei and parts of Upper Nile, given the large share of populations in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) with associated high levels of acute malnutrition. Past events in South Sudan demonstrate the potential for new shocks to quickly arise and isolate households from food sources, leading to extreme hunger, and the area remains vulnerable to rapid shifts in conflict and unpredictable flood intensity.