Ruanda

Depletion of Season A food stocks during the April to May lean season is expected to reduce poor households’ consumption of own-produced staple food crops. However, the presence of diverse vegetable production, income from labor, and the anticipated price reductions from the VAT removal are likely to support poor households ability to meet their basic food needs. While concern for acute food insecurity is generally low, there are some areas that face localized dry spells that could reduce food production and limit labor opportunities for poor households. In addition, depletion of own production earlier than normal is anticipated in a few districts across the country due to below average rainfall, dry spell and erratic rainfall during Season A, driving Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes for some. Furthermore, poor households in Nyamasheke and Rusizi districts in Western Province are likely to have below-average income, given disruptions to cross-border trade and labor opportunities caused by ongoing conflict along the border with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) that is likely to reduce their income and food access.

According to the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR) Consumer Price Index (CPI), food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rose 72.4 percent in rural areas and 41.3 percent in urban areas in March 2023 compared to the same time last year. However, the availability of interseason crops like green vegetables and fast-maturing crops, access to income from agricultural labor, and increased livestock sales will likely sustain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes during the projection period. Furthermore, ongoing favorable rainfall is expected to contribute to a bumper Season B harvest that will enhance food access in rural areas around June, and the number of households facing Stressed (Phase 2) or Crisis (Phase 3) outcomes is likely to decline. The districts of Misanze, Nyabihu, Rulindo, Ngororero and Gicumbi are receiving heavy rainfall and are expected to face increased risks of flash flooding and landslides that are likely to damage crops and houses in localized areas. Additionally, it is likely the removal of VAT on maize, rice, and Irish potato in late April will reduce the prices by about 20 to 50 percent.

In Kigali City, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected throughout the projection period as poor households will likely access diverse income-earning opportunities that will supporting meeting their food needs. Improved cross-border trade with Uganda, Burundi, and Tanzania is enhancing market supply and increasing food availability. However, while improved market supply is moderating prices to some degree, food and non-food prices remain high. Given the sustained high unemployment rate and the atypically high food and non-food prices, urban purchasing power will continue to be below average, increasing the number of poor urban households with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes during the April to May lean season.

The approximately 127,000 refugees and asylum seekers in Rwanda are expected to remain Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) throughout September, with monthly cash transfers and food assistance preventing worse food insecurity outcomes. The continued conflict in DRC caused an influx of about 6,000 new Congolese refugees in Rwanda between November 2022 and April 2023, which is likely to overstretch humanitarian assistance. WFP increased the amount of cash transfers to refugees who are at risk of high or moderate acute food insecurity, by about 43 percent in February 2023 to compensate for high inflation, approximately enough to cover 50 percent of the monthly food basket. However, the price of food is increasing at higher rate, it is likely that the increased cash transfer will not be sufficient to cover the basic food needs, and it is expected several households will likely reduce their food purchases.