África del Este

The onset of the March – May rainy season was mixed across the region. Most areas experienced the start of the seasonal rains in early- to late-March, with abnormally heavy to very heavy episodic rainfall (more than 200 percent of average amounts) over the western and northern sectors of the region. Meanwhile, the rains are yet to be fully established over coastal regions of Kenya and Tanzania, with evidence of significant early season deficits (less than 60 percent of average amounts), attributed to persistent impacts of tropical cyclone Freddy, which diverted moisture and rainfall to southern Africa.

The recent rains have had beneficial impacts on rangeland resources (pasture and water resources) and have facilitated planting activities in zones with medium to high potential for cereal crops. However, the episodic heavy rains have reportedly led to flash floods due to high water runoff in extremely dry and hardened land following the prolonged severe drought conditions since 2020. These flash floods caused serious property damage and loss of livestock in several cities and pastoral regions of eastern Ethiopia and northern and western Kenya.

Available forecasts for April indicate the full establishment of seasonal rains and an increased likelihood of wetter-than-average conditions across equatorial East Africa at the peak of the seasonal rains in April. However, there are also indications of likely persistent below-average rainfall performance over portions of East Africa’s coastal strip and parts of the western sector during this month. Land surface temperature are forecast to be generally near average across the region.